Title page
Contents
Acknowledgments 4
Executive Summary 5
Study design 5
Highlights 6
Proficiency in ESO at age 19 6
Relationship of proficiency in ESO at age 19 to proficiency in PISA at age 15 6
Correlations between ESO scores at age 19 and PISA 2012 scores at age 15 7
Relationship of education, workforce, and life outcomes at age 19 to proficiency in PISA at age 15 7
Foreword 9
1. Introduction 16
Overview of PISA YAFS 16
Importance of youth transitions 16
Organization of the report 18
Where to find more information 18
2. Study Methods 19
Data sources and measures 19
Content and skills measured by PISA 2012 at age 15 19
Content and skills measured in ESO for PISA YAFS at age 19 20
Similarities and differences between PISA 2012 and ESO 21
Background information collected by PISA 2012 at age 15 and PISA YAFS at age 19 22
Reporting results 23
Average scale scores and proficiency levels 23
Correlations 25
PISA YAFS population 29
Sampling procedures 29
Characteristics of the PISA YAFS population 30
Data limitations 32
3. Performance in ESO at Age 19 and How It Relates to PISA Performance at Age 15 33
Average scores and proficiency in ESO at age 19 33
Relating proficiency in ESO at age 19 to proficiency in PISA 2012 at age 15 33
ESO literacy at age 19 and PISA 2012 reading at age 15 34
ESO numeracy at age 19 and PISA 2012 mathematics at age 15 35
Correlations between ESO scores at age 19 and PISA 2012 scores at age 15 36
Demographics 38
Socioeconomic background 38
Behavioral and affective characteristics 38
Looking across performance outcomes 38
4. Transitions From High School to Postsecondary Life 40
Transitions to postsecondary education 40
Degree currently pursued 40
Area of study currently pursued 42
Nonformal education participation in the last 12 months 44
Transitions to the workforce 44
Employment status 44
Combined education and employment status 46
Current occupation 47
Transitions to adult life 48
Level of self-efficacy toward job-seeking 48
Life satisfaction 48
Vocational interests 48
Looking across education, employment, and adult life outcomes 51
5. Conclusion 52
References 54
Appendix A. Data Tables 57
Appendix B. Glossary of Terms 79
Appendix C. Technical Notes 85
Table A. Overview of assessment data sources in PISA YAFS: 2012 and 2016 5
Table B. Percentage of PISA 2012 middle performers, by ESO proficiency levels: 2012 and 2016 7
Table 1. Performance and demographic characteristics of the PISA and PISA YAFS populations: 2012 and 2016 31
Figure A. U.S. 19-year-olds' proficiency in ESO, by subject and level: 2016 6
Figure 1. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds in PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels at age 15 and in ESO literacy proficiency levels at age 19: 2012 and 2016 34
Figure 2. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds in PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels at age 15 and in ESO numeracy proficiency levels at age 19: 2012 and 2016 36
Figure 3. Correlation of PISA 2012 reading score and ESO literacy score for U.S. 19-year-olds: 2012 and 2016 37
Figure 4. Correlation of PISA 2012 mathematics score and ESO numeracy score for U.S. 19-year-olds: 2012 and 2016 37
Figure 5. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels and degrees currently pursued: 2016 41
Figure 6. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels and degrees currently pursued: 2016 41
Figure 7. Percentage of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels and areas of study currently pursued: 2016 42
Figure 8. Percentage of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels and areas of study currently pursued: 2016 43
Figure 9. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels and employment status: 2016 45
Figure 10. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels and employment status: 2016 45
Figure 11. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels and combined employment and education status: 2016 46
Figure 12. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels and combined employment and education status: 2016 47
Figure 13. Average scores of U.S. 19-year-olds on index of vocational interest, by PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels and vocational interests: 2016 50
Figure 14. Average scores of U.S. 19-year-olds on index of vocational interest, by PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels and vocational interests: 2016 50
Exhibits
Exhibit 1. Similarities and differences between PISA 2012 reading and mathematics literacy and ESO literacy and numeracy 22
Exhibit 2. Description of PISA 2012 proficiency levels in reading literacy 25
Exhibit 3. Description of PISA 2012 proficiency levels in mathematics literacy 26
Exhibit 4. Description of ESO proficiency levels in literacy 27
Exhibit 5. Description of ESO proficiency levels in numeracy 28
Exhibit 6. PISA YAFS sample selection process 30
Exhibit 7. Percentage of 19-year-old middle performers in PISA 2012, by ESO proficiency level and subject: 2016 39
Exhibit 8. Subgroup differences in the strength of correlation between PISA 2012 and ESO scores from the U.S. PISA YAFS population overall, by subgroup and subjects: 2012 and 2016 39
Exhibit 9. Education, employment, and life outcomes for U.S. 19-year-old high and low performers in PISA 2012 relative to the PISA YAFS population overall: 2016 51
Table A-1. Mean, standard deviation, and range of U.S. 19-year-olds' ESO literacy assessment scores: 2016 57
Table A-2. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO literacy proficiency levels and selected demographic characteristics: 2016 57
Table A-3. Mean, standard deviation, and range of U.S. 19-year-olds' ESO numeracy assessment score: 2016 58
Table A-4. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO numeracy proficiency levels and selected demographic characteristics: 2016 58
Table A-5. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO literacy proficiency level and PISA 2012 reading proficiency level: 2016 59
Table A-6. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO literacy proficiency level, sex, and PISA 2012 reading proficiency level: 2016 59
Table A-7. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO literacy proficiency level, national quarters of the PISA 2012 index of economic, social, and cultural status (ESCS), and PISA 2012... 60
Table A-8. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO literacy proficiency level, free or reduced-price lunch (FRPL) status of students' schools at age 15, and PISA 2012 reading proficiency... 61
Table A-9. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO literacy proficiency level, race/ethnicity, and PISA 2012 reading proficiency level: 2016 62
Table A-10. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO numeracy proficiency level and PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency level: 2016 63
Table A-11. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO numeracy proficiency level, sex, and PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency level: 2016 63
Table A-12. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO numeracy proficiency level, national quarters of the PISA 2012 index of economic, social, and cultural status (ESCS), and PISA 2012... 64
Table A-13. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO numeracy proficiency level, free or reduced-price lunch (FRPL) status of students' schools at age 15, and PISA 2012 mathematics... 65
Table A-14. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by ESO numeracy proficiency level, race/ethnicity, and PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency level: 2016 66
Table A-15. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds and correlations between PISA 2012 reading scores and ESO literacy scores, by selected demographic characteristics: 2016 67
Table A-16. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds and correlations between PISA 2012 mathematics scores and ESO numeracy scores, by selected demographic characteristics: 2016 68
Table A-17. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds and correlations between PISA 2012 reading scores and ESO literacy scores, by selected socioeconomic characteristics: 2016 69
Table A-18. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds and correlations between PISA 2012 mathematics scores and ESO numeracy scores, by selected socioeconomic characteristics: 2016 70
Table A-19. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds and correlations between PISA 2012 reading scores and ESO literacy scores, by selected behavioral and affective characteristics: 2016 71
Table A-20. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds and correlations between PISA 2012 mathematics scores and ESO numeracy scores, by selected behavioral and affective characteristics: 2016 71
Table A-21. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels and selected education characteristics: 2016 72
Table A-22. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels and selected education characteristics: 2016 73
Table A-23. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels and selected employment, education, and occupation status: 2016 74
Table A-24. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds, by PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels and selected employment, education, and occupation status: 2016 75
Table A-25. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds' personality characteristics and their averages on the vocational interests index, by PISA 2012 reading proficiency levels: 2016 77
Table A-26. Percentage distribution of U.S. 19-year-olds' personality characteristics and their averages on the vocational interests index, by PISA 2012 mathematics proficiency levels: 2016 78
Table C-1. Number of PISA 2012 respondents participating in PISA YAFS 2016 main study 86