Title page
Contents
Why this resource? 5
What is the teacher predictor model? 7
Model assumptions 9
How does the teacher predictor model make predictions? 10
Predicting student enrollment 10
Predicting the future teacher workforce 12
Validating intermediate statistics 19
Key considerations when developing a teacher predictor model 24
Selecting the number of years to include in predictions 24
Accounting for teachers with multiple assignments 24
Determining the number of years of historical data to include 25
Determining which subgroups of teachers to examine 25
Conclusions 27
Appendix A. Teacher predictor model calculations 28
References 34
Acknowledgments 37
Table 1. Number of employed teachers by grade level and subject area for the Central region of Missouri, 2015 13
Table 2. Predicted teacher attrition rates in Missouri, calculated using different methods 20
Table 3. Examples of differences between predicted and observed attrition rates for high school math teachers in the Central region of Missouri 20
Table 4. Mean absolute percentage errors and average percentage errors used to validate methods for calculating teacher attrition rates in Missouri 21
Table 5. Mean absolute percentage error ranks and average percentage error ranks used to validate methods for calculating teacher attrition rates in Missouri 22
Table 6. Scoring mean absolute percentage error ranks and average percentage error ranks for each method of calculating teacher attrition rates in Missouri 23
Table 7. Calculation methods identified as the most valid for each intermediate statistic in Missouri's teacher predictor model 23
Figure 1. Representation of the teacher predictor model 7
Figure 2. Illustration of the cohort progression method used to predict grade 1-12 student enrollment from 2016 to 2017 11
Figure 3. Historical and predicted middle school enrollment for selected Missouri regions, 2010-22 12
Figure 4. Historical enrollment for selected South Dakota regions, 2007-17 12
Figure 5. Number of employed high school teachers by year and subject area in Missouri, 2012-18 14
Figure 6. Elementary school teacher-student ratios by Missouri region, 2017 15
Figure 7. Middle school teacher attrition rates by year and subject area in Missouri, 2013-17 15
Figure 8. Not appropriately certified high school teacher rates in Missouri, by year and subject area, 2012-18 16
Figure 9. Using teacher attrition rates to contextualize not appropriately certified teacher rates by subject area among Missouri elementary school teachers, 2018 16
Figure 10. Historical and predicted numbers of employed middle school teachers in selected subject areas in the Kansas City region of Missouri, 2012-22 17
Figure 11. Historical and predicted rates of not appropriately certified high school teachers in selected Missouri regions, 2012-22 18
Figure 12. Historical and predicted numbers of new teacher hires by grade level in Missouri, 2013-22 19
Boxes
Box 1. Key terms 8
Table A.1. Sample calculations of student enrollment progression rates from 2017 to 2018 for grades 1-12 28
Table A.2. Sample calculations using validated progression rates from 2017 to 2018 to predict student enrollment in 2019 29
Table A.3. Sample calculations of high school teacher-student ratios for selected subject areas in the Northeast region of Missouri 29
Table A.4. Sample calculations using validated teacher-student ratios to predict employed high school teacher counts in 2019 for selected subject areas in the Northeast region of Missouri 30
Table A.5. Sample calculations of high school teacher attrition rates from 2017 to 2018 for selected subject areas in the Northeast region of Missouri 30
Table A.6. Sample calculations using validated teacher attrition rates to predict counts of high school teacher leavers in 2019 for selected subject areas in the Northeast region of Missouri 31
Table A.7. Sample calculations of not appropriately certified high school teacher rates in 2018 for selected subject areas in the Northeast region of Missouri 31
Table A.8. Sample calculations using validated not appropriately certified teacher rates to predict counts of not appropriately certified high school teachers in 2019 for selected subject... 32
Table A.9. Sample calculations of predicted counts of retained high school teachers in 2020 for selected subject areas in the Northeast region of Missouri 32
Table A.10. Sample calculations of predicted counts of high school teacher new hires in 2020 for the Northeast region of Missouri 33