Title page
Contents
ABSTRACT 2
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7
1. INTRODUCTION 8
2. METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE 11
2.1. Presentation of the database on projects and reforms 11
2.2. Alignment with the EU objectives 12
2.3. Additionality of public investments 14
2.3.1. Macro-approach 14
2.3.2. Micro-approach 16
2.4. Cross-border projects and spill-over effects 18
2.5. Semi-structured interviews 18
3. ANALYSIS 19
3.1. Alignment of the NRRPs with the EU objectives 19
3.2. Additionality of public investments 23
3.2.1. Macro-level 23
3.2.2. Micro-level 29
3.3. Cross-country projects and spill-over effects 32
3.3.1. Share and volume of projects with spill-over effects 32
3.3.2. Missed opportunities for other cross-border projects 33
4. CONCLUSIONS 35
REFERENCES 37
LIST OF INTERVIEWS 39
ANNEX 40
Table 1. Breakdown of the RRF six pillars per policy area 13
Table 2. Alignment of reforms and investments with the CSRs - Austria 40
Table 3. Alignment of reforms and investments with the CSRs - Belgium 41
Table 4. Alignment of reforms and investments with the CSRs - Germany 43
Figure 1. Share of RRF funds contributing to the RRF pillars: Austria, Belgium, and Germany 20
Figure 2. Breakdown of expenditure supporting the digital transformation (lhs) and green transition (rhs) per policy area 21
Figure 3. Breakdown of social spending under RRF per policy area 22
Figure 4. Expected increase in (planned) general government GFCF as % of GDP in 2022 compared to 2019 24
Figure 5. Comparison GFCF forecasts over time (2014-2021) 25
Figure 6. Share of annual RRF grants in investment 27
Figure 7. Graphical outputs of the four regression models for public investments 28
Figure 8. Graphical outputs of the four regression models for private investments 29
Figure 9. Additionality of public investments under the RRF 30
Figure 10. Share of projects and volume used for projects with spill-over effects 32