Title page
Contents
Abstract 2
I. Introduction 3
II. Baseline calculation 4
III. Alternative scenarios 11
IV. Other socio-economic effects 15
V. Conclusion 17
References 19
Table 1. Price ranges and estimated 2021 production volumes for key vaccines 5
Table 2. Ratio of social to private benefits 15
Figure 1. Gross private return 6
Figure 2/Figure 3. Actual and counterfactual epidemiological paths in the baseline scenario 7
Figure 3/Figure 2. Social return 10
Figure 4/Figure 3. Gross private return - alternative scenarios 12
Figure 5/Figure 4. Social return - alternative scenarios 14