Title page
Contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 4
INTRODUCTION 8
1. SMALL AREA ESTIMATION PROCESS OVERVIEW 10
2. SURVEY ESTIMATES 12
3. MODEL-BASED ESTIMATION 16
3.1. Alternative Model-Based Estimation 19
4. VALIDATION AND EVALUATION 22
4.1. Histograms of Differences in Estimates 22
4.2. Bubble Plots of Survey Estimates and Model-Based Estimates 23
4.3. Shrinkage Plots 25
4.4. Interval Coverage Plots and Associated Tables 26
4.5. Aggregation Plots 28
4.6. Scatterplots Using Selected ACS Variables 37
5. SUMMARY 39
REFERENCES 41
APPENDIX 43
Table 2-1. County-level sample size distributions for age and education groups: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 14
Table 2-2. Distribution of coefficients of variation (CVs) for county-level survey estimates for age and education groups for literacy proportion at or below... 15
Table 3-1. Distribution of credible interval widths and coefficients of variation for county-level model-based estimates for less than high school for literacy... 19
Table 4-1. Nonoverlapping uncertainty intervals for county-level survey and model-based estimates: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 27
Figure 4-1. Literacy proportion (less than high school) - Histograms of differences between survey estimates and model-based estimates: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 23
Figure 4-2. Literacy proportion (less than high school) - Comparison between survey estimates and model-based estimates: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 24
Figure 4-3. Literacy proportion (less than high school) - Comparison between model standard errors and survey standard errors: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 25
Figure 4-4. Literacy proportion (less than high school) - Shrinkage plots of point estimates by sample size: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 26
Figure 4-5. Literacy proportion (less than high school) - Indication of coverage by credible interval: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 27
Figure 4-6. Literacy proportion at or below Level 1 - County-level estimates in Maryland: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 30
Figure 4-7. Literacy proportion at or below Level 1 - County-level estimates in Maryland sorted by the county-level population total: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 31
Figure 4-8. Literacy proportion at or below Level 1 - County-level estimates in Maryland sorted by the county-level population total standard error:... 32
Figure 4-9. Literacy proportion at or below Level 1 - County-level estimates in Maryland sorted by the county-level population total coefficient of variation... 33
Figure 4-10. Literacy proportion at or below Level 1 - County-level estimates in Maryland sorted by the range of county by education group population... 34
Figure 4-11. Literacy proportion at or below Level 1 - County-level estimates in Maryland sorted by the county-level education measure: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 35
Figure 4-12. Literacy proportion at or below Level 1 for less-than-high-school education group - State-level estimates: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 36
Figure 4-13. Literacy proportion at or below Level 1 for less-than-high-school education group versus selected ACS variables - County by group-level estimates:... 38
Table A-1. Distribution of coefficients of variation (CV) for county-level survey estimates for age and education groups for numeracy proportion at or... 43
Table A-2. Distribution of coefficients of variation (CV) for county-level survey estimates for age and education groups for literacy proportion at Level 2... 43
Table A-3. Distribution of coefficients of variation (CV) for county-level survey estimates for age and education groups for numeracy proportion at Level 2:... 44
Table A-4. Distribution of coefficients of variation (CV) for county-level survey estimates for age and education groups for literacy proportion at or above... 44
Table A-5. Distribution of coefficients of variation (CV) for county-level survey estimates for age and education groups for numeracy proportion at or... 45
Table A-6. Distribution of coefficients of variation (CV) for county-level survey estimates for age and education groups for literacy average: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 45
Table A-7. Distribution of coefficients of variation (CV) for county-level survey estimates for age and education groups for numeracy average: 2012/2014/2017 PIAAC 46