Title page
Contents
Foreword 5
Executive Summary 7
1. Context 12
2. Existing Analyses on Decarbonisation 17
3. Decarbonisation and Expansion of Canada's Electricity System 22
4. Energy Consumption in End Use Applications 37
5. Non-Carbon Dioxide Emissions 55
6. Forests 61
7. Agriculture 66
8. Waste 70
9. Clean Technology Sector 74
10. Achieving a Low-Carbon Future through Infrastructure Investments 78
Conclusion 79
Reference List 80
Annex 1: Detailed Modelling Results from 2050 Scenarios 87
Table 1. Average Levelised Costs of Electricity for Plants Entering Service in 2022 & 2040; United States 24
Figure 1. Canadian Utility by Source (2014) 23
Figure 2. Scenarios of Canada's Non-Emitting Electricity Generating Supply 27
Figure 3. Canada's installed hydro power capacity against theoretical technical potential (MW), and installed wind power: by province and territory in 2014 28
Figure 4. Electricity exports and imports between Canada and the U.S., by province, 2014 32
Figure 5. Technology Roadmap : Energy Storage 35
Figure 6. Electricity as a share of National energy consumption 37
Figure 7. 2050 Projections of Total Energy Consumption by End Use Fuel 38
Figure 8. 2050 Transportation Sector Energy Use Projections (PJ) 40
Figure 9. An Urban eTruck 43
Figure 10. 2050 Building Sector Energy Use Projections 46
Figure 11. World reduction potential from existing technologies for large industrial emitters 54
Figure 12. Canada's Emissions Breakdown by Greenhouse Gas (2014) 56
Figure 13. Global Temperature Projections Relative to 1890-1910 averages 57
Figure 14. Agricultural GHG emissions in Canada in 2011 68
Figure 15. Location of Waste Prevention and Reduction in the Waste Management Hierarchy 71
Annex Tables
Table A1. Environment and Climate Change Canada - Gross Emissions (2050) 87
Table A2. Environment and Climate Change Canada-Net Emissions (2050) 88
Table A3. Trottier Energy Futures Project (Current Technology Scenario) 89
Table A4. Trottier Energy Futures Project (New Technology Scenario) 90
Table A5. Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project 91