Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
Acknowledgments 3
Summary 5
Introduction 7
Pressures and Opportunities for U.S. Competitiveness in Select Crop Markets 8
Major U.S. Competitors in Select Crop Markets 8
Brazil 9
Argentina 11
The European Union (EU) 12
Changes in Trade Environment 14
U.S. Trade Agreements 14
United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement 17
Retaliatory Tariffs and the Phase One Agreement 18
The COVID-19 Pandemic 19
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict 20
Emerging Markets and Changing Populations 21
Evolution of Export Competitiveness in Specific Crop Markets 24
Trade Indices and Data Sources 24
Corn 24
Soybean Oilseed and Intermediate Products 27
Wheat and Intermediate Products 31
Cotton 35
Tree Nuts: Almonds, Pistachios, and Walnuts 37
Conclusion 40
References 42
Table 1. Top destinations of Brazil soybean and corn exports, CYs 2017-2021 11
Table 2. Top destinations of Argentinian soybean products and corn exports, CYs 2017-2021 12
Table 3. Top destinations of European Union wheat and flour exports, CYs 2017-2021 13
Table 4. Top destinations of European Union processed wheat exports, CYs 2017-2021 13
Table 5. Trade agreements involving major U.S. crops (corn, soybeans and derivative products, wheat and wheat products, tree nuts, cotton), CYs 2006-2021 16
Table 6. Percent change in total tree nut imports by region, MYs 2016/2017-2021/2022 23
Table 7. Average export shares of U.S. wheat by country, CYs 2000-2021 33
Figures 1a and 1b. Share of U.S. agricultural export value to U.S. total export value (figure 1a, left) and the share of U.S. select crop export value to... 7
Figure 2. Value of select crop exports (corn, soybeans and derivative products, cotton, wheat products, and tree nuts) by country, CYs 2000-2021 9
Figure 3. Brazil crop production (corn, soybean products, wheat, and walnuts), MYs 2000/2001-2020/2021 10
Figure 4. Timeline of trade agreements and export value of select crops, CYs 2000-2020 15
Figure 5. U.S. crop exports to China, CYs 2015-2021 19
Figure 6. Value of U.S. crop exports and year-to-year percent change, CYs 2019 and 2020 20
Figure 7. Percent change in total corn, cotton, soybeans and derivative products, and wheat imports by region, MYs 2016/2017-2021/2022 22
Figure 8. Average global corn exports, CYs 2000-2021 25
Figure 9. U.S. share of top corn import markets, CY 2021 26
Figure 10. Corn exports-to-production ratio of top producers, MYs 2000/2001-2021/2022 27
Figure 11. Export shares of top soybean oilseed exporters, CYs 2000-2021 28
Figure 12. Average imports of top seven importers of soybean oilseed, CYs 2016-2021 29
Figure 13. Exports-to-production ratio of top soybean oilseed producers, MYs 2000/2001-2021/2022 30
Figure 14. Exports in top soybean exporting countries by volume, MY 2021/2022 31
Figure 15. Global wheat exports by value, CYs 2000-2021 32
Figure 16. Wheat exports-to-production ratios of major producers, MYs 2000/2001-2021/2022 34
Figure 17. Value of global cotton exports by country, CYs 2000-2021 35
Figure 18. Destinations of U.S. cotton exports, CYs 2017-2021 36
Figure 19. Cotton exports-to-production ratios of top producers, MYs 2000/2001-2021/2022 37
Figure 20. Value of global tree nut exports, CYs 2000-2021 38
Figure 21. Five-year average percentage of U.S. tree nut exports by type, CYs 2017-2021 39
Figure 22. Tree nut exports-to-production ratios for top producers, MYs 2000/2001-2021/2022 40