Title page
Contents
Abstract 2
Acknowledgments 2
Summary 5
Introduction 7
Method and Data 8
Analysis and Results 9
COVID-19 Pandemic and the U.S. Economy: A Brief Overview 9
Evolution of the Forecasts of 2020 NCFI and NFI and Their Components 10
2020 Forecasts Compared With Historical Forecast Releases 20
The Second Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: 2021 Forecasts 24
Conclusion 27
References 29
Appendix A: Accounting Equations for Net Cash Farm Income and Net Farm Income 32
Appendix B: Revisions to the USDA, ERS Farms Sector Estimates of NCFI and NFI 33
Appendix C: USDA, ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics Data Archive: Data Sources 34
Table 1. 2020 NCFI and NFI forecasts, estimates, deviations, and absolute percent errors, by release 11
Table 2. Aggregate components of 2020 NCFI, by release 12
Table 3. Aggregate components of 2020 NFI, by release 13
Table 4. 2020 cash receipt forecasts, estimates, and deviations, by release (U.S. dollars [billions], not adjusted for inflation) 16
Table 5. 2020 production expenses: Forecasts, estimates, and deviations, by release (U.S. dollars [billions], not adjusted for inflation) 17
Table 6. Historical periods exhibiting forecast evolution similar to 2020 23
Table 7. Farm sector income forecasts and estimates for 2021, by release 24
Table 8. 2021 NCFI components: Forecasts, estimates, and deviations, by release 26
Table 9. 2021 NFI components: Forecasts, estimates, and deviations, by release 27
Figure 1. 2020 calendar year farm income and wealth statistics data releases 8
Figure 2. U.S. Gross Domestic Product in quarter 1, 2020-quarter 1, 2022 (in billions of inflation-adjusted U.S. dollars), with the economic recession period highlighted 10
Figure 3. 2020 net income component forecasts and estimates, by release (U.S. dollars [billions], not adjusted for inflation) 14
Figure 4. Forecast deviations (errors) by component help explain differences in 2020 forecast performance by release number (U.S. dollars [billions],... 19
Figure 5. Calendar year U.S. net cash farm income and net farm income: Four consecutive forecasts and the August/September estimate (U.S. dollars [billions],... 21
Figure 6. Forecasts and estimates of major components for 2021 NCFI and NFI (U.S. dollars [billions], not adjusted for inflation) 25
Table B1. Mean and median absolute percent deviation for Releases 5-14 when compared with Release 15 33