Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
Acknowledgments 3
A report summary from the Economic Research Service 5
Introduction 7
Historical Growth in Food Consumption 9
Food Balance Sheets 10
World Food Consumption Patterns and Income 10
International Comparison Program Data From the World Bank 11
Consumer Demand Across Economies 13
Framing the Future 15
Global Modeling Framework 18
Simulation to 2050-Global Results 23
Food Calories and Crop Calories 25
Response to Population Growth 27
Impact of Agricultural Productivity 28
Simulation to 2050-Selected Regional Results 30
Impact on Land Use 31
Regional Calories Available for Consumption 32
Impact on Food Prices 34
Future Directions 35
Conclusion 36
References 38
Appendix A: FARM Background 42
Consumer Demand 43
Relationship Between FAO Food Balance Sheets and Input-Output Tables 46
Hybrid Units 47
Tracking Calories 47
Calibration of Income Response 49
CGE Framework 52
Production 53
Technical Change 54
Land as an Input to Production 55
Electricity Generation 57
Appendix B: Marginal Expenditure Shares 58
Table 1. World regions in the Future Agricultural Resources Model 18
Table 2. Production sectors in the Future Agricultural Resources Model 20
Table 3. Definitions of food consumption and production 21
Table 4. World agricultural indicators across scenarios, 2011 and 2050 24
Table 5. Agricultural indicators across scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011 and 2050 31
Figure 1. Per capita calories available for consumption (selected countries), 1990 and 2019 9
Figure 2. Budget shares for broad consumption categories, 2011 12
Figure 3. Two-stage consumer budgeting 13
Figure 4. Distribution of an additional $1 of income across 177 economies in 2011 14
Figure 5. Distribution of an additional $1 of food expenditure across 177 economies in 2011 15
Figure 6. World population estimates (United Nations medium growth), 2010-50 16
Figure 7. Gross domestic product per capita for world regions outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2007-50 17
Figure 8. Projections of world food calories and crop calories, 2011-50 26
Figure 9. Food calories by food group compared to crop calories (world total), 2011 and 2050 27
Figure 10. Response of key indicators to population growth under three scenarios, 2011-50 28
Figure 11. Agricultural productivity growth: Feedbacks under three scenarios to crop demand, land use, and crop yield, 2011-50 29
Figure 12. World land use by major food crop (million hectares), 2011-50 30
Figure 13. Land use by region for food crops, income-driven diet scenario (million hectares), 2011-50 32
Figure 14a. Per capita calories available for consumption of animal products in 2050 (variation across scenarios) 33
Figure 14b. Per capita calories available for total food consumption in 2050 (variation across scenarios) 34
Figure 15. Change in food prices from 2011 to 2050 across scenarios 35
Table A.1. Agricultural production sectors and first-stage mapping for demand system 45
Table A.2. Standard Food Balance Sheet structure (thousand metric tons), in the United States, 2013 46
Table A.3. Calorie map between production sectors 49
Table A.4. Matched variables and equations in the Future Agricultural Resources Model 53
Figure A.1. Long-run income response of animal product consumption to per capita income 50
Figure A.2. Calibrated income elasticities for animal products in selected regions in the FARM, 2011-50 51
Figure A.3. Income elasticities for food subgroups, 2011 International Comparison Program 52
Figure A.4. Generic production structure in the Future Agricultural Resources Model 54
Figure A.5. Production structure for crops and forestry 55
Figure A.6. Feed production structure for ruminant animals 56
Figure A.7. Electricity generation and distribution in Future Agricultural Resources Model 57