Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
Acknowledgments 3
A report summary from the Economic Research Service 5
Introduction 7
U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields Between 1996 and 2016 9
Past and Future Weather 11
Estimating Yields 16
Estimation Results 17
Crop Yield Estimates 18
Computable General Equilibrium Model 20
Corn Shock 23
Soybean Shock 24
Combined Shock 25
Conclusion 27
References 28
Appendix 31
Calibration Results 31
Table 1. Descriptive statistics for report data 17
Table 2. GWR yield changes and area harvested from the CGE model, 2016-36 21
Table 3. GTAP results for land-use change (percent changes), 2016-36 23
Table 4. GTAP production and trade results (percent changes), 2016-36 24
Table 5a. Changes to bilateral corn exports in U.S. dollars 26
Table 5b. Changes to bilateral soybean exports in U.S. dollars 26
Figure 1. Historical yields for U.S. corn and soybeans, 1970 to 2022 10
Figure 2. Corn and soybean yield changes for U.S. counties east of the 100th meridian, 1996-2016 11
Figure 3. Growing degree days and extreme growing degree days, 1992-2032 12
Figure 4. Changes in climate variables in U.S. counties east of the 100th meridian, 2016-36 13
Figure 5. Growing degree days, extreme degree days, and precipitation by 2036 15
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of the marginal effects of heat and precipitation on corn yields for U.S. counties to east of the 100th meridian, 2016-36 18
Figure 7. Spatial distribution of the marginal effects of heat and precipitation on soybean yields for U.S. counties east of the 100th meridian, 2016-36 19
Figure 8. Global Trade Analysis Project-Agro-Ecological Zones across the Eastern United States 20
Figure 9. Land allocation in the GTAP-AEZ Model, CGE conceptual framework 22
Table A.1. Calibration statistics across different model specifications considering temperature (rows) and precipitation (columns) 31