Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
Acknowledgments 3
A report summary from the Economic Research Service 5
Introduction 7
The Spread of African Swine Fever, 2005-22 7
Global Spread of African Swine Fever 7
Spread of ASF in China 10
African Swine Fever Spread Rapidly Through China's Swine Industry 13
Factors Contributing to the Rapid Spread of African Swine Fever in China 14
China's Prevention Activities in Response to African Swine Fever 15
Impacts on China's Pork Market 17
Swine Inventory Decline and Recovery 18
Decline and Recovery Cycle of 30 Months 21
China Lost an Estimated 27.9 Million Tons of Pork Output 24
Pork Reserve Sales Were Comprised of Imported Pork 26
Pork Imports Replaced About One-Fifth of the Loss in Production 26
Pork Consumption Fell; Consumption of Poultry, Eggs, Fish, and Shellfish Increased 28
Consumer Pork Prices Rose 119 Percent 30
Impacts on the Global Pork Market 32
Large Impacts Were Expected 32
China Accounted for 45 Percent of World Pork Imports in 2020 32
The European Union Supplied 58 Percent of China's Pork Imports in 2018-21; the U.S. Share Was 15 Percent 33
Exporters Saw a Surge in Pork Exports During 2019-20 and a Decline in 2021 35
Exports of Higher Valued Muscle Cuts to China Increased More Than Exports of Offal 36
Among Leading Pork Exporters, Canada Was the Most Reliant on Exports to China 38
Exporters' Pork Price Increases Were Not as Big as China's Price Increases 39
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Masked Impacts of Exports to China 41
Summary of Impacts 42
References 44
Table 1. African swine fever deaths, cases, susceptible, and culled swine in China, 2018-22 11
Table 2. Change in number of Chinese swine farms, by size category, 2012-20 20
Table 3. Time needed to produce finished hogs from new sows 20
Table 4. Change in per capita consumption of pork and other animal protein, 2018-21 29
Table 5. Change in China's hog and pork prices after African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks 32
Table 6. China's share of world pork imports, 2010-21 33
Table 7. Pork exports to China by major exporting countries and regions, 2018-21 35
Figure 1. Geographic distribution of African swine fever outbreaks, January 2018-June 2020 8
Figure 2. Peak number of African swine fever cases, semi-annual totals by geographic region, 2005-22 10
Figure 3. African swine fever cases across provinces in China, 2018-22 13
Figure 4. Supply and demand after China's African swine fever (ASF) event 18
Figure 5. China swine inventory declined sharply in 2019 19
Figure 6. Decline and recovery of China's swine inventory, 2018-21 22
Figure 7. China's quarterly pork output, 2010-22 24
Figure 8. China's pork output, forecast and actual, 2018-21 25
Figure 9. China's pork imports and pork production shortfall 27
Figure 10. Chinese household per-capita purchases of pork and other animal proteins, 2016-21 29
Figure 11. Per capita pork consumption: Chinese provinces with the largest decreases during 2018-20 and largest increases during 2020-21 30
Figure 12. Growth in China's hog and pork prices after the first ASF outbreaks 31
Figure 13. Share of world pork exports to China, by exporting country, 2018-21 34
Figure 14. Pork exports to China by leading exporters, 2018-22 36
Figure 15. European Union pork exports to China by type, 2018-21 37
Figure 16. U.S. pork exports to China by major type, 2018-21 38
Figure 17. Estimated share of pork production exported to China by major exporters, 2017-21 39
Figure 18. U.S. pork price and exports to China, 2018-21 40
Figure 19. Pork prices in Spain and Germany, and European Union (EU) pork exports to China, 2018-21 41
Table A.1. Countries whose pork was banned by China due to African swine fever outbreaks, 2018-22 51
Table A.2. African swine fever cases in Chinese Provinces, 2018-22 53
Table A.3. Changes in per capita pork consumption, by Chinese Province, 2018-21 54