Title page
Contents
INTRODUCTION 4
STRATEGIC CONTEXT 5
SCENARIOS FOR DELIBERATE NUCLEAR USE 8
Scenarios for Chinese Limited Nuclear First Use 8
Signaling 8
Demonstration 9
Nuclear Attack on Taiwan 9
Nuclear Attack on US Forces, Allies, or Territory 9
Scenarios for US Limited Nuclear First Use 10
Scenarios for an Extended Nuclear Exchange 11
STRATEGY, POLICY, AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES 12
Objectives of US Response, Including Potential Nuclear Use 12
Response with Nuclear or Conventional Forces to Chinese Nuclear First Use 12
Status of Targets on the Chinese Mainland 13
Off-Mainland Targets for Nuclear Attack 14
PLA Navy Vessels 14
Militarized Islands in the South China Sea 15
PLA Beachheads in Taiwan 15
Mainland Targets for US Nuclear Use 15
Conventional Military Facilities Supporting the Invasion 15
Nuclear Facility that Generated a Chinese Nuclear Strike 16
Broader Nuclear Forces and Command and Control Target Set 16
RECOMMENDATIONS 16
CONCLUSION 17
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY 18
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 18