Title page
Contents
Preface 4
Acknowledgements 9
Executive summary 10
1. Stalled labour market recovery undermines social justice 17
Overview 17
A challenging macroeconomic environment for labour markets 21
The cost-of-living crisis is eroding disposable incomes 21
Options for fiscal and monetary policy are limited 22
Short-term economic outlook 23
Long-term trends affecting labour market dynamics 25
Labour supply, employment and shortage of jobs 26
Labour supply 26
Quantity of work: Employment and working hours 29
Unemployment 35
The jobs gap, beyond unemployment 37
Workers are likely to face deteriorating working conditions 39
Work incomes and inequality 39
The changing composition of employment growth 41
Risks to the outlook 45
Renewing the social contract and advancing social justice 47
References 48
2. Employment and social trends by region 53
Overview 53
Africa 55
Labour market trends in North Africa 56
Labour market trends in sub-Saharan Africa 56
Job creation potential from climate change adaptation 58
Americas 60
Labour market trends in Latin America and the Caribbean 60
Quality of employment remains a concern in Latin America and the Caribbean 62
Labour market trends in North America 63
Labour and skill shortages are widespread in North America 64
Arab States 65
Labour market trends in the Arab States 66
Jobs in the just transition to a green economy in the Arab States 66
Asia and the Pacific 68
Labour market trends in Asia and the Pacific 69
Ongoing shortages of migrant workers in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries of destination 71
Europe and Central Asia 73
Labour market trends in Europe and Central Asia 74
Labour force growth is a significant challenge in the region 76
References 78
3. Global productivity trends: Reviving growth through the digital economy? 82
Macroeconomic challenges in a global environment of low productivity growth 82
Productivity trends across the globe and structural shifts 85
Technology and labour market linkages 95
What else explains the productivity slowdown? 102
Policy options 104
Creating an environment for sustainable productivity growth 104
Productivity ecosystems for decent work and just transition 106
Institutional arrangements to promote productivity and decent work 107
References 109
Appendix A. Groupings of countries by region and income level 122
Appendix B. ILO modelled estimates 124
Appendix C. Tables of labour market indicators, world, by country income group and by region or subregion 132
Appendix D. Estimates of jobs in global supply chains 170
Appendix E. Productivity measurement and data 173
Appendix F. Productivity growth and structural change 177
Table 1.1. Employment and employment-to-population ratio, 2019-24, by sex, world and by country income group 33
Table 1.2. Weekly hours worked relative to the fourth quarter of 2019, percentages and FTE, 2020-24, world and by country income group 35
Table 1.3. Unemployment and unemployment rate, 2019-24, by sex, world and by country income group 36
Table 1.4. Extreme working poverty, 2000-22, world and by country income group 41
Table 2.1. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Africa, 2019-24 57
Table 2.2. Estimates and projections for working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Americas, 2019-24 61
Table 2.3. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Arab States, 2019-24 67
Table 2.4. Estimates and projections for working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Asia and the Pacific, 2019-24 70
Table 2.5. Estimates and projections for working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Europe and Central Asia, 2019-24 75
Figure 1.1. Overview of deficits in decent work and social justice, 2022 or latest year available 19
Figure 1.2. Food and energy prices indices 21
Figure 1.3. Median consumer and business confidence indicators (standard deviation from mean) and policy uncertainty, February 2004 to September 2022 24
Figure 1.4. Growth of GDP per capita, 2010-23, world and country income groups 25
Figure 1.5. Old-age dependency ratio and labour force participation rate of people aged 25-64, 1991-2021, world and by country income group 27
Figure 1.6. Labour force participation rate, 2022, by sex, world and by subregion 28
Figure 1.7. Youth aged 15-24 not in employment, education, or training, 2022, by sex, world and by subregion 29
Figure 1.8. Job vacancies (standard deviations from mean), June 2001 to September 2022 30
Figure 1.9. Average annual employment growth, 2010-24, world and by country income group 31
Figure 1.10. Revision to employment growth projection in 2023, world, country income groups and regions 32
Figure 1.11. Weekly hours worked per employed person, 2010-24, world and by country income group 34
Figure 1.12. Weekly hours worked per employed person, 2022, by sex, world and by subregion 34
Figure 1.13. Youth unemployment rates, 2019 and 2022, world and country income groups 37
Figure 1.14. Unemployment rate and jobs gap, 2022, by gender and country income group 38
Figure 1.15. Index of informal employment incidence, 2004-22, by sex (2004 = 100) 42
Figure 1.16. Weighted incidence of employment characteristic in middle-income countries, activities relating to GSCs linked to high-income countries, and all activities, 2019 44
Figure 1.17. Share of type of workers by economic activities, 2021, by country income group 45
Figure 1.18. Evolution of economic, financial and social globalization, 1970-2022 46
Figure 2.1. Climate change resilience (ND GAIN scores) and informal employment rate 59
Figure 2.2. Change in the share of informal employment in total employment, 2019-22 63
Figure 2.3. Employment levels in North America, seasonally adjusted (January 2021 = 100) 64
Figure 2.4. Number of job vacancies per person unemployed 65
Figure 2.5. Outflows of documented migrant workers, selected ASEAN Member States, 2010-20 72
Figure 2.6. Projected labour force participation rates by ILO region and subregion, 2024 77
Figure 2.7. Projected labour force growth between 2022 and 2024 by ILO region and subregion 77
Figure 3.1. Labour productivity convergence across geographic regions, China and country income groups 87
Figure 3.2. Long-term labour productivity growth: G7 countries versus Brazil, China and India 88
Figure 3.3. Average labour productivity growth in different ILO regions and countries, selected periods 89
Figure 3.4. Labour productivity, informality, and working poverty 90
Figure 3.5. Labour productivity and investment 93
Figure 3.6. Skills mismatches by country income group 97
Figure 3.7. Working-age population trajectories in some of the world's most populous countries, 1980-2030 (percentages of total population) 101
Boxes
Box 1.1. Food price explosion causes rise in food insecurity 40
Box 1.2. Accounting for GSC-related jobs 43
Box 3.1. Productivity: Measurement and key concepts 86
Box 3.2. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic 94
Box 3.3. Productivity growth and automation 96
Table C1. World 132
Table C2. Low-income countries 134
Table C3. Lower-middle-income countries 136
Table C4. Upper-middle-income countries 138
Table C5. High-income countries 140
Table C6. Africa 142
Table C7. North Africa 144
Table C8. Sub-Saharan Africa 146
Table C9. Latin America and the Caribbean 148
Table C10. North America 150
Table C11. Arab States (non-GCC) 152
Table C12. Arab States (GCC) 154
Table C13. East Asia 156
Table C14. South-East Asia 158
Table C15. South Asia 160
Table C16. The Pacific 162
Table C17. Northern, Southern and Western Europe 164
Table C18. Eastern Europe 166
Table C19. Central and Western Asia 168
Table D1. Sectors included 171
Table D2. Economies included 172
Figure E1. Breakdown of growth in GDP per worker into growth in GDP per hour and hours worked per worker 174
Figure F1. Average labour productivity growth in the main economic sectors, 1992-2018 177
Figure F2. Decomposition of labour productivity growth, selected economies 178
Figure F3. Real value added and employment shares across sectors 179