Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
Acknowledgments 3
Summary 5
Introduction 7
Livestock Forage Disaster Program Background 11
Assessing the Stocking Impact of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program: Data and Methods 14
Data: The Impact of LFP Payments on Beef Cattle Herd Stocking Decisions 15
Modeling: The Impact of LFP Payments on Livestock Herd Stocking Decisions 16
Assessing the Stocking Impact of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program: Results 17
The Financial-Climate Risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP): Data and Methods 20
Characterizing the Relationship Between Historical Drought Severity and LFP Payments 20
Projecting Future Drought Conditions Through 2100 21
Modeling Assumptions and Limitations 23
The Financial-Climate Risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program: Results 24
Conclusion 28
References 30
Appendix A: Livestock Forage Disaster Program Payment Rates 35
Appendix B: Summary Statistics for Outcome and Matched Set Refinement Variables in Livestock Forage Disaster Program Stocking Impact Analysis 36
Appendix C: Modeling the Stocking Impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program Eligibility 37
Appendix D: Stocking Impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program 39
Appendix E: Stocking Impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program, Percent Change in County-Level Beef Cattle Herd Size as Dependent Variable 40
Appendix F: Livestock Forage Disaster Program's Stocking Impact When Treatment Counties Include More Extreme Drought Conditions 41
Appendix G: Stocking Impact of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program When Excluding Counties With Large Inventories of Cattle on Feed 43
Appendix H: Stocking Impact of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program When Splitting Sample Based on Differing Payment Cap Regimes 45
Appendix I: Testing the Effectiveness of Matching Methods 48
Appendix J: Modeling the Financial-Climate Risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) 51
Appendix K: Projections of Future Drought Conditions 55
Appendix L: Projections of Future Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) Expenditures by Emission Scenario Differentiating between Stationarity and... 57
Table 1. Eligibility criteria for Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) monthly payments 13
Figure 1. Drought conditions in the continental United States and percent changes in the U.S. beef cattle herd size 9
Figure 2. Total annual nominal and real Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments, 2008-22 11
Figure 3. Total Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments per 1,000 head of livestock by county, 2008-22 14
Figure 4. Causal impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments on subsequent county-level beef cattle herd retention liquidation decisions 19
Figure 5. Methodology used to predict future Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments 22
Figure 6. Projected Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments, 2023-2100 27
Table A.1. Livestock Forage Disaster Program payment rates by livestock type, 2019-23 35
Table B.1. Summary statistics for outcome and matched set refinement variables in Livestock Forage Disaster Program stocking impact analysis 36
Table D.1. Stocking Impact of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) 39
Table J.1. Modeling results: Relationship between Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments and drought 52
Figure E.1. Causal Impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments on county-level beef cattle herd retention liquidation decisions 40
Figure F.1. Causal impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments on county-level beef cattle herd retention and liquidation decisions 42
Figure G.1. Causal impact of LFP payments on subsequent county-level beef cattle herd retention and liqui- dation decisions excluding counties where... 44
Figure H.1. Causal impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments on county-level beef cattle herd retention and liquidation decisions, 2014-17 46
Figure H.2. Causal impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments on county-level beef cattle herd retention and liquidation decisions, 2019-22 47
Figure I.1. Causal impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments on subsequent county-level beef cattle herd retention liquidation decisions... 56
Figure I.2. Causal impact of Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments on subsequent county-level beef cattle herd retention liquidation decisions... 49
Figure I.3. Absolute value of standardized mean difference for covariates before and after matching refinement 50
Figure J.1. Observed and predicted annual aggregate Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments, 2014-22 54
Figure L.1. Projected future Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) payments by emission scenario 58