Title page
Contents
Foreword 5
First Principles for Energy Relations with Russia and Ukraine 7
Introduction 8
Scenarios for the War's Outcome 8
How to Evaluate Each Scenario 9
Western Unity, Energy Security, and Decarbonization 11
Western Unity 11
Energy Security, Decarbonization, and Global Climate Efforts 11
The Outlook for Russian Piped Gas across Five Scenarios 13
The Outlook for Russian LNG across Five Scenarios 18
The Outlook for Russian Oil across Five Scenarios 22
Recommendations 28
Providing Certainty to the Gas Market 29
Conclusion 31
About the Authors 33
Acknowledgments 34
Table 1. Scenarios for Russian Pipeline Gas Routes to Europe 16
Table 2. Scenarios for Russian Pipeline Gas Exports to Europe 17
Table 3. Past and Planned Russian LNG Capacity Prior to the War 18
Table 4. Scenarios for Russian LNG Flows 19
Table 5. Scenarios for Russian LNG Exports 21
Table 6. Scenarios for Oil Sanctions 23
Figure 1. Projections of Russian Gas's Market Share in Europe 14
Figure 2. Russian Piped Gas in European Supply Mix 17
Figure 3. Russian LNG as Part of European Gas Mix 20
Figure 4. Russian Crude and Condensate Production, Export, and Domestic Demand 24
Figure 5. Russian Oil Export Volumes through Pipelines and Ports 25
Figure 6. Russian Crude Export Capacity 26
Figure 7. Russian Supply in Global Crude and Condensate Supply Mix 27