Title page
Contents
Weather Outlook 2
Price Outlook 4
Citrus Fruit Outlook 8
Noncitrus Fruit Outlook 16
Melons Outlook 24
Tree Nuts Outlook 30
Special Article: California Table Olives 36
References 42
Table 1. Monthly fruit prices received by growers, United States 5
Table 2. U.S. melons: Supply and availability, by type and all, 2019-23 25
Figure 1. From water year 2022/2023 to 2023/2024, the percent of California in drought 2
Figure 2. From water year 2022/2023 to 2023/2024, the percent of Washington in drought dropped from 100 to 90 percent, but the intensity of drought worsened 3
Figure 3. Index of prices received by growers for fruit and tree nuts 4
Figure 4. U.S. monthly retail prices for selected fruit, 2021-24 7
Figure 5. Fresh citrus commodities remain popular despite falling juice consumption 8
Figure 6. Orange juice prices are up in 2023/24 amid record low domestic stocks 11
Figure 7. Grapefruit: production is up 4 percent up in 2023/24 but still below historic levels 12
Figure 8. Lemons: production forecast down 25 percent in 2023/24 compared to last year 14
Figure 9. Tangerines: production forecast down 7 percent in 2023/24 compared to last 15
Figure 10. Weekly fresh strawberry shipments, January 2023-mid-March 2024 17
Figure 11. U.S. fresh apple export volume starts strong in 2023/24 18
Figure 12. Top apple varieties by the bushel in 2023/24F 19
Figure 13. Weekly fresh blueberry shipments, January 2023-mid-March 2024 20
Figure 14. Top U.S. custom ports by value for fresh avocados imports, 2023 22
Figure 15. FOB prices for Hass avocados from Mexico, January 2022-February 2024 23
Figure 16. Monthly domestic and imported avocado shipments, January 2022-February 2024 23
Figure 17. Melon imports reach record high in 2023 24
Figure 18. Watermelon utilized production up in key State Florida 26
Figure 19. Weekly watermelon domestic and import shipments, 2023 to early 2024 27
Figure 20. Domestic cantaloupe production declines as imports remain flat, 1996-2023 27
Figure 21. Weekly cantaloupe domestic and import shipments, 2023 to early 2024 28
Figure 22. Weekly honeydew domestic and import shipments, 2023 to early 2024 29
Figure 23. California pistachio acreage climbs, 1990-2023 31
Figure 24. U.S. in-shell pistachio export volume up in early 2023/24, but real unit values down 33
Figure 25. U.S. pistachio season average grower prices and weighted export unit value for in-shell pistachios, adjusted for inflation 33
Figure 26. America's native tree nut: Pecan bearing acres by State, 2022 34
Figure 27. U.S. pecan production and beginning stocks (shelled basis), 2000/01-2023/24P 35
Special Article Tables
Table SA-1. Processed olives, excluding oil: Supply and availability, product-weight equivalent, 1990/91-22/23 43
Special Article Figures
Figure SA-1. Olive yields fluctuate while inflation-adjusted annual average grower prices remain relatively steady 37
Figure SA-2. Percentage of California olive production processed for canning or crushed for oil, 1980-2022 39
Figure SA-3. U.S. processed olive import value (excluding olive oil) by country, 1990/91-2022/23 40
Figure SA-4. Import volume of green and not green olives (in saline solution) by processed description, 1990/91-22/23 41