Title page
Contents
Abstract 4
Résumé 4
1. Introduction 8
2. What is AI and what does it do? An economic view 9
2.1. AI systems in a production function view: requirements (inputs) and capabilities (outputs) 9
2.2. How is AI different from previous technologies? 12
3. Early micro level evidence: AI can yield substantial performance gains 16
4. Longer run aggregate productivity gains are uncertain and depend on various conditions 19
4.1. A conceptual framework and a few illustrative estimates 19
4.2. Market dynamics, labour reallocation across sectors and aggregate productivity 22
4.3. AI diffusion, market functioning and dynamism 28
5. Key challenges and opportunities related to inequality and inclusion 38
5.1. Inequality in the labour market 38
5.2. AI's impact on economic mobility 40
5.3. AI and the inclusiveness of disadvantaged groups 41
5.4. AI's impact across countries 42
6. Economic challenges as a result of broader societal risks 43
7. Policy discussion 44
7.1. Steering the evolution of AI 45
7.2. Addressing the ex-post effects of AI 46
7.3. Adapting policy and governance to the fast pace of AI innovation 47
References 48
Annex A. Additional Tables and Figures 60
Table 1. Comparing AI to selected previous General Purpose Technologies 13
Figure 1. AI systems in a production function view: inputs and outputs 10
Figure 2. Strong positive expectations on AI's role in innovation 15
Figure 3. AI patents are widely cited across a range of technologies 15
Figure 4. The relationship between AI and productivity or worker performance: selected estimates from the literature 17
Figure 5. A majority of workers report benefits from using AI 18
Figure 6. AI and aggregate productivity over the long run: main channels 20
Figure 7. The potential effects of AI on productivity levels and growth rates over the long run 22
Figure 8. High productivity and knowledge intensive services are most affected by AI 25
Figure 9. Tasks in knowledge intensive services are more prone to automation by text-based Generative AI 26
Figure 10. The AI occupational exposure and complementarity of jobs: a nuanced picture 27
Figure 11. AI patenting increased dramatically, with high cross-country concentration 28
Figure 12. The adoption of AI is much lower than that of other digital technologies 29
Figure 13. AI adoption is still limited compared to the spread of previous General Purpose Technologies 30
Figure 14. AI related vacancies require more advanced technical and complementary skills 31
Figure 15. AI skill demand is concentrated in knowledge intensive services and manufacturing 32
Annex Tables
Table A.1. OECD AI Principles 60
Table A.2. Estimates on the effect of AI on firm productivity and worker performance 62
Annex Figures
Figure A.1. Stylised conceptual view of an AI system (per OECD AI Principles) 63
Figure A.2. The AI system lifecycle 63
Figure A.3. AI Skills are Concentrated in Specific Countries 64
Figure A.4. Risks from adopting AI as seen by scientists 64