Title page
Contents
Foreword 4
About This Report 12
PROJECTIONS 12
LIMITATIONS OF PROJECTIONS 12
Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 14
INTRODUCTION 14
Accuracy of Projections 14
NATIONAL 15
STATE AND REGIONAL (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 17
RACE/ETHNICITY (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 19
Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers 20
INTRODUCTION 20
Accuracy of Projections 20
TEACHERS IN ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS 21
Section 3. High School Graduates 24
INTRODUCTION 24
Accuracy of Projections 24
NATIONAL 25
STATE AND REGIONAL (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 26
RACE/ETHNICITY (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 28
Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education 29
INTRODUCTION 29
Accuracy of Projections 29
CURRENT EXPENDITURES 30
Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions 32
INTRODUCTION 32
Accuracy of Projections 32
TOTAL ENROLLMENT 33
ENROLLMENT BY SELECTED STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTROL OF INSTITUTION 34
FIRST-TIME FRESHMEN ENROLLMENT 39
FULL-TIME-EQUIVALENT ENROLLMENT, BY CONTROL OF INSTITUTION 40
Section 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred 41
INTRODUCTION 41
Accuracy of Projections 41
DEGREES, BY LEVEL OF DEGREE AND SEX OF RECIPIENT 42
Reference Tables 44
Technical Appendixes 74
Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology 75
A.0. INTRODUCTION TO PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 75
A.1. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY ENROLLMENT 81
A.2. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY TEACHERS 91
A.3. HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES 99
A.4. EXPENDITURES FOR PUBLIC ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION 104
A.5. ENROLLMENT IN DEGREE-GRANTING POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS 107
A.6. POSTSECONDARY DEGREES CONFERRED 120
Appendix B. Supplementary Tables 122
Appendix C. Data Sources 128
Appendix D. References 143
Appendix E. List of Abbreviations 144
Appendix F. Glossary 145
Table 1. Enrollment in elementary, secondary, and degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution: Selected years, 1869-70... 45
Table 2. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by level and grade: Selected years, fall 1980 through fall 2030 46
Table 3. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2030 47
Table 4. Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2030 49
Table 5. Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2030 51
Table 6. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and region: Selected years,... 53
Table 7. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and level of education:... 54
Table 8. Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, pupil/teacher ratios, and new teacher hires: Selected years, fall 1955... 56
Table 9. High school graduates, by sex and control of school; public high school averaged freshman graduation rate (AFGR); and total graduates... 57
Table 10. Public high school graduates, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, 1980-81 through 2030-31 58
Table 11. Public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1998-99 through 2030-31 60
Table 12. Current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools: 1989-90 through 2030-31 61
Table 13. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control of institution: Selected years,... 62
Table 14. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex, and age of student: Selected years, 2001 through... 64
Table 15. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution, attendance status, and sex of student:... 65
Table 16. Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control and... 67
Table 17. Total postbaccalaureate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control of... 69
Table 18. Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1976 through 2030 70
Table 19. Total fall enrollment of first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status,... 71
Table 20. Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control and level of institution: 1967 through 2030 72
Table 21. Degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2030-31 73
Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 15
Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 16
Figure 3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2020 to fall 2030 17
Figure 4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2010, fall 2020, and fall 2030 18
Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 19
Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers, by control of school: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 21
Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 22
Figure 8. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary new teacher hires, by control of school: Fall 2011, fall 2019, and fall 2030 23
Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 2005-06 through 2030-31 25
Figure 10. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2012-13 and 2030-31 26
Figure 11. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2009-10, 2012-13, and 2030-31 27
Figure 12. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 2005-06 through 2030-31 28
Figure 13. Actual and projected current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2020-21 dollars): School years... 30
Figure 14. Actual and projected current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2020-21... 31
Figure 15. Actual and projected population numbers for 18- to 24-year-olds and 25- to 29-year-olds: 2010 through 2030 32
Figure 16. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 33
Figure 17. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by age group: Fall 2010, fall 2019,... 34
Figure 18. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 35
Figure 19. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 36
Figure 20. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by enrollment level of student: Fall 2010... 36
Figure 21. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2010... 37
Figure 22. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control of institution: Fall 2010 through fall 2030 38
Figure 23. Actual and projected numbers for total first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex:... 39
Figure 24. Actual and projected numbers for full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control: Fall 2010... 40
Figure 25. Actual and projected numbers for associate's degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2010-11... 42
Figure 26. Actual and projected numbers for bachelor's degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2010-11... 42
Figure 27. Actual and projected numbers for master's degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2010-11... 43
Figure 28. Actual and projected numbers for doctor's degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2010-11... 43
Table A-1. Summary of forecast assumptions to 2030 79
Table A-2. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all elementary and secondary schools: MAPEs constructed... 79
Table A-3. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, part 1 80
Table A-4. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, part 2 80
Table A-5. Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2020, and fall 2021 through fall 2030 87
Table A-6. Actual and projected national enrollment rates in public schools, by grade level: Fall 2020, and fall 2021 through fall 2030 87
Table A-7. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten through grade 12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools,.. 88
Table A-8. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten through grade 8 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools,... 89
Table A-9. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected grades 9-12 enrollment in public schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs... 90
Table A-10. Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers based on data from 1972 through 2019 96
Table A-11. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age group, control of school, and teaching status: School years 2011-12,... 97
Table A-12. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time newly hired teachers, by age and control of school: Selected school years, 1987-88 through 2017-18 97
Table A-13. Actual and projected continuation rates of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age and control of school: Selected school years, 1993-94... 98
Table A-14. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the projected number of high school graduates in public schools, by lead time, region, and... 103
Table A-15. Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment for public elementary and secondary schools,... 106
Table A-16a. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on... 112
Table A-16b. Estimated fixed effects for model estimates of enrollment rates at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex and enrollment status 112
Table A-17. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment rates of all students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, attendance status,... 113
Table A-18. Actual and projected percentage distributions of full-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, age group, student level,... 114
Table A-19. Actual and projected percentage distributions of part-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, age group, student level,... 115
Table A-20. Actual and projected enrollment in public degree-granting postsecondary institutions as a percent of total postsecondary enrollment, by sex,... 115
Table A-21. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander males at degree-granting... 116
Table A-22. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander females at degree-granting... 116
Table A-23. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions... 117
Table A-24. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions... 117
Table A-25. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic males at degree-granting postsecondary... 118
Table A-26. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic females at degree-granting postsecondary... 118
Table A-27. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White males at degree-granting postsecondary... 119
Table A-28. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions... 119
Table A-29. Estimated equations and model statistics for degrees conferred, by degree type and sex based on data from 1997 to 2018-19 121
Table B-1. Actual and projected prekindergarten- and kindergarten-age populations, by age: 2010 through 2030 123
Table B-2. Actual and projected school-age populations, by selected ages: 2010 through 2030 124
Table B-3. Actual and projected college-age populations, by selected ages: 2010 through 2030 125
Table B-4. Actual and projected fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change in fall enrollment from previous year, resident population, and... 126
Table B-5. Actual and projected macroeconomic measures of the economy: School years 2010-11 through 2030-31 127
Appendix Text Tables
Table A. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school, and grade in elementary and secondary schools:... 84
Table B. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from... 86
Table C. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public elementary and secondary school teachers, by lead time: MAPEs... 94
Table D. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time and control of school: MAPEs constructed... 100
Table E. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of public high school graduates, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed... 102
Table F. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures for public elementary and secondary education,... 106