Title page
Contents
Executive summary 4
Trade in 2023 and the outlook for 2024 and 2025 5
Drivers of trade 7
Breakdown of the trade forecast 13
Risks to the outlook 17
Trade in value terms 19
a. Merchandise trade 19
b. Commercial services trade 23
Global value chains and evidence of fragmentation 31
Analysis: The Suez Canal crisis 35
Bibliography 46
Table 1. Merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2020-2025 14
Boxes
Box 1. Slowdowns in global economic growth and the high cyclicality of trade flows 9
Box 2. Services including mode 3 account for 42% of global trade 29
Charts
Chart 1. Volume of world merchandise trade, 2015Q1-2025Q4 5
Chart 2. World goods and commercial services exports, 2018-2023 6
Chart 3. World merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2018-2025 7
Chart 4. Average import content of aggregate demand components 9
Chart 5. Global primary commodity prices, January 2019-March 2024 10
Chart 6. Consumer price inflation in selected economies, January 2021-January 2024 11
Chart 7. Contributions to world trade volume growth by region, 2022-2025 12
Chart 8. Merchandise exports and imports by region, 2019Q1-2024Q4 13
Chart 9. Global Purchasing Managers' Index, January 2019-January 2024 15
Chart 10. RWI/ISL container throughput index, January 2019-January 2024 16
Chart 11. Relationship between merchandise trade growth and GDP growth 17
Chart 12. Trade within and between hypothetical geopolitical blocs (left) and the difference of between bloc and within bloc trade (right) 18
Chart 13. Year-on-year merchandise trade growth by product 19
Chart 14. Merchandise trade of LDCs, 2019‑2023 21
Chart 15. Merchandise trade balances of the LDCs, 2019‑2023 22
Chart 16. Merchandise exports of LDCs by major product group, 2023 22
Chart 17. Year-on-year growth in world commercial services trade, 2022-2023 23
Chart 18. Growth of other commercial services exports by main subsector, 2022-2023 25
Chart 19. Global exports of digitally delivered services, 2005-2023 26
Chart 20. Growth of digitally delivered services exports and goods exports by region, 2023 27
Chart 21. Structure of world exports of digitally delivered services, 2023 27
Chart 22. Growth of digitally delivered services exports by region and selected group, 2015-2023 28
Chart 23. World trade in commercial services by mode of supply, 2005-2022 29
Chart 24. Structure of world services trade by mode of supply, 2022 30
Chart 25. World exports of non-fuel intermediate goods, 2022Q1‑2023Q4 31
Chart 26. Total bilateral trade in BEC Parts and Accessories, 2019-2023 32
Chart 27. Trade between the United States and China and with other partners, 2016-2023 33
Chart 28. Share of United States imports of ICT services by region, 2018-2023 34
Chart 29. Weekly Red Sea passages and transit volume, 1 January 2019-19 March 2024 35
Chart 30. Projected average shipping delays when avoiding the Red Sea 36
Chart 31. Maritime freight costs during the 2021 Suez Canal grounding and the 2023-2024 Red Sea crisis 37
Chart 32. Demand and supply chain pressure indexes during the 2021 Suez Canal grounding and the 2023-2024 Red Sea crisis 38
Chart 33. Monthly crude oil and natural gas prices during the 2021 Suez Canal grounding and the 2023-2024 Red Sea crisis 39
Chart 34. Container ship fleet development, 2019-2024 40
Appendix Table 1. Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2023 41
Appendix Table 2. Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU trade, 2023 42
Appendix Table 3. Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2023 43
Appendix Table 4. Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU trade, 2023 44
Appendix Table 5. Leading exporters of digitally delivered services, 2023 45