Title page
Contents
Introduction 8
It's The Thinking 9
Warnings Unheeded 10
Failure to Understand the Enemy 12
A Different Approach: Using Forecasting Processes to Increase the Rigor of Analysis 13
Stage 1: Scoping the Strategic Question(s) 16
Stage 2: Identifying Scenarios and Drivers 16
Stage 3: Identifying Signals and Developing Forecast Questions 16
Exploring the Counterfactual: Crowdsourced Strategic Forecasting in the Israel-Hamas Context 18
Hamas' Intentions and Capabilities 19
In Conclusion: No Silver Bullets 25
Endnotes 26
Figure 1. Cultivate Labs' decomposition and crowdsourced strategic forecasting process 15