Title page
Contents
Short-term forecasts, May 2024 3
Average of independent forecasts for 2024; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and unemployment 10
Average of independent forecasts for 2024; PSNB (2024-25) and Current account (2024 & 2025) 11
Average of independent forecasts for 2025; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and unemployment 12
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2024; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 13
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2024; LFS unemployment, current account and PSNB (2024-25) made in last 3 months 14
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2025; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 15
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2025; LFS unemployment, current account and PSNB (2025-26) made in last 3 months 16
Medium-term forecasts, May 2024 17
Average of new medium-term forecasts for GDP growth, CPI inflation and claimant unemployment 23
Average of new medium-term forecasts for the current account and PSNB 24
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions 25
Annex 2: Data definitions 26
Annex 3: Notation used in tables 27
Annex 4: Organisation contact details 28
Table 1. 2024: Growth in GDP and its components (% annual growth) 4
Table 2. 2024: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 5
Table 3. 2024: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 6
Table 4. 2025: Growth in GDP and its components (% annual growth) 7
Table 5. 2025: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 8
Table 6. 2025: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 9
Table M1. Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflator 18
Table M2. Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contribution 18
Table M3. Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflation 19
Table M4. Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rate 19
Table M5. Medium-term forecasts LFS unemployment 20
Table M6. Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemployment and average earnings 20
Table M7. Medium-term forecasts for current account 21
Table M8. Medium-term forecasts for PSNB 21
Table M9. Medium-term forecasts for house price inflation and the output gap 22