Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
Acknowledgments 3
Summary 5
Introduction 7
Background 9
Solar Development 9
Wind Development 12
Footprint of Solar and Wind Development on Rural Lands 15
Regional Land Cover 17
Spatial Data and Methodology 18
Measuring Land Cover 19
Land Cover and Land Cover Change 20
Annual Land Cover Change 20
Land Cover and Land Cover Change: From 3 Years Before to 3 Years After Development 21
Land Cover Before Solar or Wind Installations 22
Land Cover Changes Associated With Solar and Wind Development 26
Distribution of Land Cover After Solar or Wind Installations 28
Conclusion 33
References 35
Appendix A: Characteristics and Implementation of the Solar and Wind Data 42
Appendix B: Comparison of Rural Sample Versus All Observations 43
Appendix C: Cropland Data Layer Land Cover Classes and Associated Land Cover Categories 44
Appendix D: Robustness Checks Using Alternative Buffers 46
Land Cover Before Solar or Wind Installations 46
Land Cover Change from 3 Years Before to 3 Years After Development 48
Appendix E: Measuring Land Cover Change with the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer 50
Appendix F: Annual Land Cover Change by Census Tract 52
Appendix G: Land Cover in the Project Year: Solar and Wind Development 53
Appendix H: Comparison of Land Cover Categories Across All Rural Samples 56
Appendix I: Land Cover Change on Solar and Wind Lands Using the National Land Cover Database 58
Table 1. Cumulative footprint of solar farms and wind turbines in rural areas, 2020 15
Table 2. Land cover and land cover change on solar and wind lands, 2012-17 27
Table 3. Share of land cover change associated with solar installations (3 years before and after), 2012-17 29
Table 4. Share of land cover change associated with wind turbine installations (3 years before and after), 2012-17 30
Figure 1. ARMS III farm production expenditure regions, 2022 9
Figure 2. Utility-scale solar projects in rural areas of the United States, 2020 10
Figure 3. Utility-scale wind turbines in rural areas of the United States, 2020 14
Figure 4. Share of land cover by category and region, 2012 17
Figure 5. Average annual land cover change: Solar lands and wind lands, 2010-20 20
Figure 6. Agricultural and nonagricultural land cover categories 21
Figure 7. Share of solar projects by land cover category and region prior to an installation, 2012-20 24
Figure 8. Share of wind turbines by land cover category and region prior to an installation, 2012-2020 25
Figure 9. Sites in continuous cropland: Fallow years after a solar or wind installation, 2012-17 32
Table B.1. Land cover by category for rural sample and all observations, 2009-20 43
Table C.1. Cropland Data Layer land cover classes and associated land cover category 44
Table D.1.a. Solar lands prior to an installation by region and land cover category using a 300-meter buffer, 2012-20 46
Table D.1.b. Wind lands prior to an installation by region and land cover category using a 75-meter buffer, 2012-20 47
Table D.2.a. Share of land cover change associated with solar installations (3 years before and after) using a 300-meter buffer, 2012-17 48
Table D.2.b. Share of land cover change associated with wind turbines (3 years before and after) using a 75-meter buffer, 2012-17 49
Table G.1. Solar projects by land cover type in the project year, 2009-20 54
Table G.2. Wind turbines by land cover type in the project year, 2009-20 55
Table H.1. Rural solar projects by land cover in the project year across samples 56
Table H.2. Rural wind projects by land cover in the project year across samples 57
Table I.1. Land cover change associated with solar installations using NLCD, 2012-18 59
Table I.2. Land cover change associated with wind turbine installations using NLCD, 2012-18 59
Figure F.1. Annual land cover change in rural census tracts, 2009-16 52