Title page
Contents
Abstract 7
Executive summary 11
1. BELGIUM: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 37
2. BULGARIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 47
3. CZECHIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 56
4. DENMARK: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 65
5. GERMANY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 74
6. ESTONIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 83
7. IRELAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 93
8. GREECE: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 102
9. SPAIN: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 112
10. FRANCE: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 122
11. CROATIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 132
12. ITALY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 141
13. CYPRUS: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 151
14. LATVIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 160
15. LITHUANIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 169
16. LUXEMBOURG: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 179
17. HUNGARY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 188
18. MALTA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 197
19. THE NETHERLANDS: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 206
20. AUSTRIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 216
21. POLAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 226
22. PORTUGAL: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 234
23. ROMANIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 243
24. SLOVENIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 252
25. SLOVAKIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 262
26. SWEDEN: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 272
27. FINLAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 281
ANNEX I. Construction of the study's own estimated index of the level of digital skills in EU Member States 291
ANNEX II. Literature Review: a mapping and discussion of the various channels through which the digital transformation impacts labour market dynamics 296
1. BELGIUM: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 38
Table 1. BE. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 38
2. BULGARIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 48
Table 1. BG. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 48
3. CZECHIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 57
Table 1. CZ. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 57
4. DENMARK: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 66
Table 1. DK. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "degree of digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 66
5. GERMANY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 75
Table 1. DE. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 75
6. ESTONIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 84
Table 1. EE. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 84
7. IRELAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 94
Table 1. IE. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 94
8. GREECE: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 103
Table 1. EL. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 103
9. SPAIN: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 113
Table 1. ES. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 113
10. FRANCE: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 124
Table 1. FR. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 124
11. CROATIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 133
Table 1. HR. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 133
12. ITALY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 142
Table 1. IT. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 142
13. CYPRUS: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 152
Table 1. CY. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 152
14. LATVIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 161
Table 1. LV. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 161
15. LITHUANIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 170
Table 1. LT. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 170
16. LUXEMBOURG: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 180
Table 1. LU. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 180
17. HUNGARY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 189
Table 1. HU. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 189
18. MALTA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 198
Table 1. MT. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 198
19. THE NETHERLANDS: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 207
Table 1. NL. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 207
20. AUSTRIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 217
Table 1. AT. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 217
21. POLAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 227
Table 1. PL. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 227
22. PORTUGAL: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 235
Table 1. PT. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 235
23. ROMANIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 244
Table 1. RO. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 244
24. SLOVENIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 253
Table 1. SI. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 253
25. SLOVAKIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 263
Table 1. SK. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 263
26. SWEDEN: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 273
Table 1. SE. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 273
27. FINLAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 282
Table 1. FI. Sector's share of employment, annual growth rate, and ranking of "digital transformation" (the sectors are ranked according to the ranking... 282
1. BELGIUM: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 40
Figure 1a. BE. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 40
Figure 1b. BE. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 40
Figure 2. BE. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 41
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in BE and the EU (2019) 43
Figure 4. Social Protection in BE and the EU 44
Figure 5. DESI Index for BE and the EU (2022) 45
2. BULGARIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 49
Figure 1. BG. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 49
Figure 2. BG. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 50
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in BG and the EU (2019) 52
Figure 4. Social Protection in BG and the EU 53
Figure 5. DESI index for BG and the EU (2022) 55
3. CZECHIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 59
Figure 1a. CZ. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 59
Figure 1b. CZ. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 59
Figure 2. CZ. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 60
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in CZ and the EU (2019) 61
Figure 4. Social Protection in CZ and the EU 63
Figure 5. DESI Index for CZ and the EU (2022) 64
4. DENMARK: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 68
Figure 1a. DK. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 68
Figure 1b. DK. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 68
Figure 2. DK. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 69
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in DK and the EU (2019) 71
Figure 4. Social Protection in DK and the EU 72
Figure 5. DESI Index for DK and the EU 73
5. GERMANY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 77
Figure 1a. DE. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 77
Figure 1b. DE. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 77
Figure 2. DE. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 78
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in DE and the EU (2019) 80
Figure 4. Social Protection in DE and the EU 81
Figure 5. DESI Index for DE and the EU 82
6. ESTONIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 86
Figure 1a. EE. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 86
Figure 1b. EE. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 86
Figure 2. EE. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 87
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in EE and the EU (2019) 89
Figure 4. Social Protection in EE and the EU 90
Figure 5. DESI Index for EE and the EU 91
7. IRELAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 96
Figure 1. IE. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 96
Figure 2. IE. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 97
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in IE and the EU (2019) 98
Figure 4. Social Protection in IE and the EU 99
Figure 5. DESI Index for IE and the EU (2022) 100
8. GREECE: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 105
Figure 1a. EL. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 105
Figure 1b. EL. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 105
Figure 2. EL. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 106
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in EL and the EU (2019) 108
Figure 4. Social Protection in EL and the EU 109
Figure 5. DESI Index for EL and the EU (2022) 110
9. SPAIN: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 115
Figure 1a. ES. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 115
Figure 1b. ES. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 115
Figure 2. ES. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 116
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in ES and the EU (2019) 118
Figure 4. Social Protection in ES and the EU 119
Figure 5. DESI Index for ES and the EU 120
10. FRANCE: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 125
Figure 1a. FR. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 125
Figure 1b. FR. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 126
Figure 2. FR. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 127
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in FR and the EU (2019) 128
Figure 4. Social Protection in FR and the EU 129
Figure 5. DESI Index for FR and the EU (2022) 130
11. CROATIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 135
Figure 1. HR. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 135
Figure 2. HR. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 136
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in HR and the EU (2019) 137
Figure 4. Social Protection in HR and the EU 138
Figure 5. DESI Index for HR and the EU 140
12. ITALY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 144
Figure 1a. IT. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 144
Figure 1b. IT. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 144
Figure 2. IT. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 145
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in IT and the EU (2019) 147
Figure 4. Social Protection in IT and the EU 148
Figure 5. DESI Index for IT and the EU (2022) 149
13. CYPRUS: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 154
Figure 1. CY. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 154
Figure 2. CY. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 155
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in CY and the EU (2019) 156
Figure 4. Social Protection in CY and the EU 157
Figure 5. DESI Index for CY and the EU 158
14. LATVIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 163
Figure 1a. LV. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 163
Figure 1b. LV. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 163
Figure 2. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 164
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in LV and the EU (2019) 166
Figure 4. Social Protection in LV and the EU 167
Figure 5. DESI Index for LV and the EU 168
15. LITHUANIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 172
Figure 1a. LT. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 172
Figure 1b. LT. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 172
Figure 2. LT. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 173
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in LT and the EU (2019) 175
Figure 4. Social Protection in LT and the EU 176
Figure 5. DESI Index for LT and the EU (2022) 177
16. LUXEMBOURG: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 182
Figure 1a. LU. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 182
Figure 1b. LU. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 182
Figure 2. LU. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 183
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in LU and the EU (2019) 185
Figure 4. Social Protection in LU and the EU 186
Figure 5. DESI Index for LU and the EU (2022) 187
17. HUNGARY: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 191
Figure 1. HU. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 191
Figure 2. HU. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 192
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in HU and the EU (2019) 193
Figure 4. Social Protection in HU and the EU 195
Figure 5. DESI Index for HU and the EU (2022) 196
18. MALTA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 199
Figure 1. MT. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 199
Figure 2. MT. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 200
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in MT and the EU (2019) 202
Figure 4. Social Protection in MT and the EU 203
Figure 5. DESI Score for MT and the EU (2022) 204
19. THE NETHERLANDS: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 209
Figure 1. NL. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 209
Figure 2. NL. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 209
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in NL and the EU (2019) 211
Figure 4. Social Protection in NL and the EU 213
Figure 5. DESI Score for NL and the EU (2022) 214
20. AUSTRIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 219
Figure 1a. AT. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 219
Figure 1b. AT. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 219
Figure 2. AT. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 220
Figure 3/Figure 4. Estimated digital skill in AT and the EU 222
Figure 4/Figure 5. Social protection in AT and the EU 223
Figure 5/Figure 6. DESI Index for AT and the EU (2022) 224
21. POLAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 228
Figure 1. PL. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 228
Figure 2. PL. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 229
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in PL and the EU (2019) 230
Figure 4. Social Protection in PL and the EU 232
Figure 5. DESI Index for PL and the EU (2022) 233
22. PORTUGAL: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 237
Figure 1. PT. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 237
Figure 2. PT. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 238
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in PT and the EU (2019) 239
Figure 4. Social Protection in PT and the EU 241
Figure 5. DESI Index for PT and the EU (2022) 242
23. ROMANIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 246
Figure 1. RO. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 246
Figure 2. RO. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 247
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in RO and the EU (2019) 248
Figure 4. Social Protection in RO and the EU 249
Figure 5. DESI Index for RO and the EU (2022) 251
24. SLOVENIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 255
Figure 1a. SI. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 255
Figure 1b. SI. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 255
Figure 2. SI. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 256
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in SI and the EU (2019) 258
Figure 4. Social Protection in SI and the EU 259
Figure 5. DESI Index for SI and the EU (2022) 260
25. SLOVAKIA: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 265
Figure 1a. SK. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 265
Figure 1b. SK. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 265
Figure 2. SK. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 266
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in SK and the EU (2019) 268
Figure 4. Social Protection in SK and the EU 269
Figure 5. DESI Index for SK and the EU (2022) 270
26. SWEDEN: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 275
Figure 1. SE. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 275
Figure 2. SE. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 276
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in SE and the EU (2019) 277
Figure 4. Social Protection in SE and the EU 278
Figure 5. DESI Index for SE and the EU 279
27. FINLAND: elements of a socially fair digital transformation 284
Figure 1a. FI. Relationship between the percentage of enterprises that employ ICT specialists (in 2022) and the projected annual growth rate of sector's... 284
Figure 1b. FI. Relationship between 'digital capital intensity' and the projected annual growth rate of sector's employment share (2022-2035) 285
Figure 2. FI. Employment shares of occupations (at ISCO-08 1 digit level) - split into sub shares 'not at risk' and 'at risk' of automation (2022)... 286
Figure 3. Estimated Digital Skills in FI and the EU (2019) 287
Figure 4. Social Protection in FI and the EU 288
Figure 5. DESI Index for FI and the EU (2022) 290
Annex Tables
Table A1. Summary of the four components of the Eurostat main composite indicator "individual's level of digital skills" 291
Table A2. Availability of EUKLEMS & INTANProd data by sector and by Member State for constructing the Digital Capital Intensity index 294