Title page
Contents
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 3
2. Theoretical Framework 5
3. Model Calibration 11
3.1. Parameter Calibration 11
3.2. Fixed Cost of FDI Calibration 12
4. Illustrative Simulations 16
4.1. Simulation 1: Baseline Simulation 17
4.2. Simulation 2: Large Tariff Increase 20
4.3. Simulation 3: Large Productivity Disruption 21
4.4. Simulation 4: No Productivity Disruption 23
5. Conclusion 24
References 27
6. Appendix 28
Table 1. Illustrative Simulation Inputs 17
Table 2. Inputs for Additional Illustrative Simulations 29
Figure 1. Productivity Disruption Path (Simulation 1) 18
Figure 2. Simulation 1 19
Figure 3. Simulation 2 21
Figure 4. Productivity Disruption Path (Simulation 3) 22
Figure 5. Simulation 3 22
Figure 6. Simulation 4 24
Figure 7. Simulation 5 29
Figure 8. Simulation 6 30
Figure 9. Simulation 7 30
Figure 10. Simulation 3a 31