Title page
Contents
Acknowledgements 2
Executive Summary 4
INTRODUCTION 7
CHAPTER 1. A Typology for Today's Drones 11
CHAPTER 2. Proliferation and the Global Drone Landscape 15
CHAPTER 3. Historical Case Studies of Drone Use 23
The Battle for Tripoli (April 2019-May 2020) 24
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (September 27-November 10, 2020) 32
The Ukraine War (February 2022-September 2023) 38
Case Comparison: Trends in Recent Drone Use 52
CHAPTER 4. Drones in an Indo-Pacific Fight 55
The Geographic Challenge: the Tyranny of Distance in the Indo-Pacific Theater 56
The Challenge of Affordable Long-Range Mass 58
Chinese Operational Concepts 60
Taiwanese Operational Concepts 62
U.S. Operational Concepts 64
Drones in the Indo-Pacific Today and Tomorrow 68
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 70
APPENDIX. Proliferation Dataset Methodology 75
Figure 1. Examples of Different Types of Drones 13
Figure 2. Military Drone Transfers over Time, 1995-2023 17
Figure 3. Armed Drone Sales, 2010-2023 18
Figure 4. Countries with Chinese and Turkish Armed Drones 19
Figure 5. Drone Transfers by Configuration, 1995-2023 20
Figure 6. GNA Sea-Based Air Defense around Tripoli 26
Figure 7. Wing Loong and TB2 Ranges 28
Figure 8. Kill Chains in the Battle for Tripoli 29
Figure 9. Azerbaijani Axes of Attack 33
Figure 10. Kill Chains in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War 35
Figure 11. The Russian Invasion Plan 39
Figure 12. Ukraine's Fall 2022 Offensive 41
Figure 13. The Three Axes of Attack in Ukraine's Summer 2023 Offensive 42
Figure 14. Kill Chains in the Ukraine War 46
Figure 15. U.S. Bases in the Western Pacific 57
Figure 16. Common Military and Kamikaze Drones by Range and Cost 58
Figure 17. Kill Chains for the People's Republic of China in a Taiwan War 61
Figure 18. Kill Chains for Taiwan in a Taiwan War 63
Figure 19. Kill Chains for the United States in a Taiwan War - Sinking Ship 66
Figure 20. Kill Chains for the United States in a Taiwan War - Air Battle over Taiwan 67
Figure A1. Drone Transfer Status Definitions 76
Figure A2. Map of United States Combatant Commands 77
Figure A3. Drone Type Definitions 78
Figure A4. Order Year Definitions 78