Title page
Contents
FOREWORD 4
KEY MESSAGES 5
1. Macroeconomic situation and outlook 6
2. Fiscal policy developments 7
3. The euro-area fiscal stance in the reformed fiscal framework 9
GLOSSARY 20
Graphs
Graph 1.1. Nominal and real GDP growth, euro area 13
Graph 1.2. Differences in GDP growth in the euro area 13
Graph 1.3. Global trade volume 13
Graph 1.4. Euro area real GDP 13
Graph 1.5. Inflation and wages, euro area 13
Graph 1.6. Economic survey indicators, euro area 13
Graph 1.7. Output gap, euro area 14
Graph 1.8. Unemployment rate, euro area 14
Graph 1.9. Employment and total hours worked 14
Graph 1.10. Unemployment across Member States 14
Graph 1.11. Euro area Beveridge curve 14
Graph 1.12. Euro area labour force participation rate 14
Graph 2.1. Drivers of the change in the general government budget balance; euro area aggregate 15
Graph 2.2. Government revenue and expenditure; euro area aggregate 15
Graph 2.3. Headline budget balance, euro area aggregate 15
Graph 2.4. Fiscal stance, the structural primary balance; euro area aggregate 15
Graph 2.5. Fiscal impulse, change of the structural primary balance, euro area aggregate 15
Graph 2.6. Fiscal impulse as measured by the expenditure benchmark; euro area aggregate 15
Graph 2.7. Contributions of countries to the aggregate fiscal impulse 16
Graph 2.8. Drivers of government debt-to-GDP ratio; euro area aggregate 16
Graph 2.9. Government debt levels 16
Graph 2.10. Euro area government expenditure and structural primary budget balance 16
Graph 2.11. Fiscal stance and cyclical conditions across euro area Member States in 2024 16
Graph 2.12. Fiscal stance and cyclical conditions across euro area Member States in 2025 16
Graph 2.13. Fiscal impulse and cyclical conditions across euro area Member States in 2024 17
Graph 2.14. Fiscal impulse and cyclical conditions across euro area Member States in 2025 17
Graph 2.15. Overview: Expected national and aggregate fiscal impulse, stabilisation and sustainability - numbers do not yet reflect the draft budgetary plans... 18