Title page
Contents
1. Introduction 5
2. Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2025-2029 6
2.1. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF 7
2.2. Payments for the completion of outstanding commitments 9
2.3. Decommitments 10
2.4. NextGenerationEU 11
2.5. Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments 12
3. Forecast of inflows of the EU budget 2025-2029 13
4. Conclusions 14
Annex I/Annex II - Results of the forecast 16
Commission Staff Working Document 25
1. Introduction 27
2. Forecast assumptions by main spending elements 27
2.1. 2014-2020 European Structural and Investment (ESI) Funds and 2021-2027 cohesion policy funds 27
2.2. Rural Development 28
2.3. Direct payments and market measures under the Common Agricultural Policy 28
2.4. Other programmes and funds 28
2.5. Administration 29
2.6. Special Instruments 29
3. Assumptions for forecasting revenue 30
3.1. Applicable legislation 30
3.2. Traditional own resources 30
3.3. National contributions 30
3.4. Other revenue 31
Charts
Chart 1. Payments forecast by category 6
Chart 2. Payments forecast vs. MFF payment ceiling for the period 2025-2027 7
Chart 3. Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments (RAL) over 2025-2027, measured in percentage of the Union's Gross National Income 12
Chart 4. Revenue forecast for financing the MFF 2025-2029 14
Annex Tables
Table 1.1. Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2025-2029 for the MFF 16
Table 1.2. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF 17
Table 1.3. Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments 18
Table 2. Forecast decommitments 2025-2027 19
Table 3. Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU 19
Table 4. Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2025 to 2027 20
Table 5. Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2025-2029 21