Title page
Contents
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 4
2. Conceptual Framework and Data Sources 5
3. The Model 6
4. Findings and Applications of the Index 9
5. The GSCSI and Other Indexes 14
6. Stress and Rates: Competing for Scarce Capacity 16
7. Conclusion 19
References and resources 21
Annex 1. Global Supply Chain Stress index for selected maritime regions (in TEUs) 24
Annex 2. Global Supply Chain Stress Index (TEUs) for selected seaports, 2019-2024 25
Annex 3. A preliminary model: How stress quantitatively relate to rates in times of crisis 26
Annex 4. Value per TEU at STIC 2 digits (median observed value) 28
Table 1. Indicators Quantifying Supply Chain Disruptions 5
Table 2. Shippers' Willingness to Pay: Mechanism, Rate Formation and Theoretical Reference 18
Figure 1. Concept of the GSCSI 6
Figure 2. Lead Time Between a Pair of Subsequent Ports 7
Figure 3. Distribution of monthly median transit time, Port of Shanghai to Port of Long Beach (hours) 8
Figure 4. Monthly median transit time (Tda) between the ports of Shanghai and Long Beach (hours) 8
Figure 5. Global Supply Chain Stress Index (MTEU) January 2016- February 2024 (Monthly) 9
Figure 6. Disruptions in Global Maritime Supply Chains and the GSCSI 13
Figure 7. PMI Supplier delivery time (USA) and Stress Index (MTEU), 2016-2024 14
Figure 8. Schedule Reliability and Stress Index (MTEU), 2016-2024 14
Figure 9. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and Stress Index (MTEU), 2016-2024 16
Figure 10. Coevolution of Global Stress (MTEU) and Freight Rates (USD/TEU), 2019-2024 17
Figure 11. Shanghai Freight Index and Stress 17
Figure 12. Baltic Dry Index, 1985-2024 17
Maps
Map 1. Delayed capacity at World's Major Port Gateways (August 2021) 10
Map 2. Port Activity and Containership Delayed Capacity in TEU per Hour at Port North America (August 2021) 11