Title page
Contents
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 4
2. Data and Methods 5
2.1. High-Frequency Phone Surveys 5
2.2. Variable Creation 6
2.3. Estimation 8
3. Results 8
3.1. Agricultural Engagement 8
3.2. Incidence of Fertilizer Use 10
3.3. Fertilizer Shortfall 13
3.4. Fertilizer Prices 16
4. Discussion and Policy Implications 20
5. Conclusions 21
References 22
Figure 1. Share of households engaged in crop farming over time 9
Figure 2. Reasons for disruption of agricultural activity 10
Figure 3. Incidence of Inorganic Fertilizer Use 12
Figure 4. Reasons for not applying fertilizer 13
Figure 5. Share of households that could not access desired amount of fertilizer 14
Figure 6. Reason for Fertilizer Shortfall 15
Figure 7. Strategies for Coping with Fertilizer Shortfall 16
Figure 8. Households reporting increased fertilizer prices relative to preceding season 17
Figure 9. Fertilizer prices 18
Figure 10. Strategies for coping with high fertilizer prices 19
Table A1. HFPS fieldwork rounds and sample distribution by country 24
Table A2. Share of households farming crops 25
Table A3. Share of crop-farming households with disruption to their agricultural activity 26
Table A4. Reasons for disruption to normal agricultural activity 27
Table A5. Share of crop-farming households that used any inorganic fertilizer 28
Table A6. Time trends in the incidence of inorganic fertilizer use 29
Table A7. Correlates of fertilizer use 30
Table A8. Reasons for not applying fertilizer 31
Table A9. Share of households using fertilizer that could not access the desired amount 32
Table A10. Linear trend in share of fertilizer-using households that could not access desired amount 33
Table A11. Incidence of fertilizer shortfall Any fertilizer shortfall (dummy) 34
Table A12. Fertilizer shortfalls (means) 35
Table A13. Depth of fertilizer shortfalls 36
Table A14. Reasons for not having been able to access desired amount of fertilizer 37
Table A15. Share of crop-farming households that reported increase in fertilizer price relative to the past agricultural season 38
Table A16. Self-reported fertilizer price change compared to last agricultural season 39
Table A17. Mean fertilizer price (LCU/Kg) 40
Table A18. Coping strategies for high fertilizer prices 41
Table A19. Coping strategies for not having been able to access the desired amount of fertilizer 42
Table A20. Price elasticity of fertilizer use (incidence) 43
Table A21. Price elasticity of fertilizer purchases 44
Figure A1. Data collection schedule - Burkina Faso 45
Figure A2. Data collection schedule - Ethiopia 46
Figure A3. Data collection schedule - Malawi 47
Figure A4. Data collection schedule - Nigeria 48
Figure A5. Data collection schedule - Tanzania 49
Figure A6. Data collection schedule - Uganda 50