[title page etc.]
Seminar Program
Contents
Use of Metaphors or Generic Systems for Formulating Models : Illustrations from Present and Distant Past / Khalid Saeed 6
Abstract 6
1. Introduction 6
2. The variety of generic structures in system dynamics 7
3. Illustrations of metaphorical systems from present and distant past 9
3.1. The stray dogs system 10
3.2. The dynastic cycle system 13
4. Conclusion 21
References 23
Annex 1. Equation for the stray dogs system 25
Annex 2. Equations for the dynastic cycle system 26
Dynamical Systems, Cellular Automata, Urban Models and SLEUTH : Anticipating the Future Urban System / Keith C. Clarke 28
Models of Dynamical Systems 29
Modeling simple systems 30
Laminar vs. Turbulent flow 31
Stock Market Crashes 32
Properties of Complex Systems 33
Urban systems 34
Models in the Framework 37
Models surveyed 38
Cellular automata 39
The game of life 40
Some examples 41
More examples 42
Emergence in CA 43
Urban Cellular Automata 44
The Approach 45
Project Web Site 46
How does SLEUTH work? 47
Spontaneous Growth 49
Creation of new spreading centers 50
Organic Growth 51
Road Influenced Growth 52
Deltatron Land Cover Model 54
Behavior Rules 55
Forecasting (the future from the present) 56
Project Web Site : Shareware C code and Documentation 57
Santa Barbara Study Area : UCIME (Integrated modeling) 58
The South Coast 60
Planning Tools : Coupling 61
Data for the models 62
Santa Barbara Historic Growth 64
2040 Probabilities and Scenarios 66
Stella version of SCOPE 68
SLEUTH and Scenarios 69
Westernport Project : DPI Parkville Conceptual Framework 74
Scenario 2 76
SLEUTH Model Output 77
A decade of SLEUTHing 78
SLEUTH lessons learned 79
Unsolved issues 81
Validation vs. Verification 82
Characteristics and Practical Use of SimCity / Yeon Joon Kim 84
1. What is SimCity? 84
1.1. Summary of SimCity 84
1.2. The Advent of SimCity and Development Process 86
2. The Functions and Components of SimCity 91
2.1. Topography Selection 91
2.2. City Construction 92
2.3. City Management 93
2.4. Residents' Participation and Monitoring 94
3. The Method of Space Composition and decision-making process in SimCity 95
3.1. The Method of Space Composition in SimCity 95
3.2. SimCity and Decision Making Process 101
4. Use of SimCity in the National Land Research Field 109
4.1. Application of Urban Planning 109
4.2. Model Simulation 114
5. Conclusion (SimCity for Time and Spatial Integrated System) 118
References 120
Directions to Formulation of Integrated SD-GIS System / Young-Pyo Kim 122
1. Three Fundamental Elements in the Universe : Three Kans Time(Si-Kan), Space(Gong-Kan) and Human(In-Kan) 122
2. Spatio-Temporal-Human Integrated Universe : The Harmony of Three Kans 123
3. Approach to the System Construction for the Three Kans Integration 123
4. System Dynamics Techniques : Time Based Approach 124
4.1. The Progress of System Dynamics 124
4.2. Complex World vs. Simple Structure 125
4.3. Tools for the development of System Dynamics Modeling 126
4.4. Formulating Process of System Dynamics Modeling 126
4.5. Simultaneously Solving from the Prospect of Future to the Measurement of Policy Efficiency 128
4.6. KRIHS Accomplishments in System Dynamics Research 129
5. GIS Techniques : Space Based Approach 133
5.1. Outline 133
5.2. Database Construction of Spatial Geographic Information 133
5.3. Construction of GIS Application System 133
5.4. GIS Spatial Analysis 134
6. Optimal Control Methods : Human Based Approach 134
6.1. Overview 134
6.2. Calculus of Variation 135
6.3. Dynamic Programming 136
6.4. Maximum Principle 136
7. Game Techniques : Simulation Approach 136
8. Approach to the Integrated Simulation System for Space, Time and Human Factors 137
8.1. World Interrelated with Time, Space, and Human 137
8.2. Establishment Plan for the Integrated System of Time-Space-Human Factors 138
9. Conclusions 143
References 144