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Title page

Contents

Abstract / Resume 5

Key policy messages 6

1. Introduction 7

A vision of growth 7

2. Growth determinants 9

Population ageing will reduce the share of the working-age population in most countries 11

Net migration will only modestly lower old-age dependency ratios 12

Structural reforms will be needed to sustain labour force participation 13

Unemployment will return to pre-crisis levels 16

Human capital will continue to improve 16

Capital intensity is assumed to gradually stabilise 17

Efficiency improvements will be the main driver of growth 18

Global growth will be sustained by emerging countries, though at a declining rate 19

The relative size of economies will change dramatically over the next half century 20

GDP per capita gaps will shrink but significant cross-country differences will persist 21

3. Global saving and current account imbalances 22

The global saving rate will decline over the long-run and be increasingly driven by China and India 22

Global current account imbalances will build up 24

4. Bold structural and macro policies can enhance growth and reduce imbalances 25

Product market liberalisation would speed up convergence 25

Labour market reforms can boost long-run GDP 26

Ambitious fiscal consolidation and structural reforms can reduce imbalances and boost growth 26

Bibliography 28

Figure 1. Scope for catch-up in productivity and human capital in many countries 10

Figure 2. Populations will age in most countries 11

Figure 3. Foreign-born population lowers the old-age dependency ratio by around 2 percentage points on average, 2010 13

Figure 4. Labour force participation is projected to decline at unchanged policies 14

Figure 5. Labour force participation is projected to change relatively little in the baseline scenario 15

Figure 6. Educational attainment will increase over time 17

Figure 7. Capital intensity is expected to broadly stabilise 18

Figure 8. Multi-factor productivity tends to converge across countries over 2011-2060 19

Figure 9. Convergence in GDP across countries is mainly driven by education and productivity improvements 20

Figure 10. There will be major changes in the composition of global GDP 21

Figure 11. Despite substantial gains by emerging countries, differences in GDP per capita still remain in 2060 22

Figure 12. Saving rates are projected to decline 23

Figure 13. Emerging countries will account for a larger share in global saving 24

Figure 14. Global imbalances are projected to rise over the next two decades 25

Figure 15. More ambitious structural reforms and fiscal consolidation raise GDP 27

Figure 16. More ambitious policies can reduce global imbalances 27

Boxes

Box 1. Long-term macro economic projections 8

Annex Tables

Table A.1. Average growth rate in trend GDP and trend GDP per capita in USD 2005 PPPs 29

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