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Title page

Contents

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 5

PREFACE 6

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

1. QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES 12

The second quantum revolution 12

Quantum computing and quantum advantage 18

Other quantum technologies 21

Public funding and the economic impact of quantum technologies 22

Quantum technologies - A global overview 23

2. QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES AND CYBERSECURITY 24

The effect of quantum technologies on cybersecurity 24

Why we need to act now - Mosca's inequality 28

3. QUANTUM-RESISTANT CRYPTOGRAPHY 32

Overview of quantum-resistant cryptography 32

Migration to quantum-resistant cryptography 35

Large enterprises and cryptographic agility 38

4. QUANTUM CRYPTOGRAPHY 41

Quantum key distribution - Advantages and disadvantages 41

Quantum random number generators 43

5. ETHICAL, GOVERNANCE AND POLICY ISSUES OF QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES 44

Introduction 44

Responsible quantum technologies 45

Equitable access to quantum technologies 49

Quantum technologies and privacy 52

Governance of quantum technologies 52

6. QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES AND CYBERSECURITY: POLICY IMPLICATIONS 54

Introduction 54

Policies to foster the standardisation of quantum-resistant cryptography 55

Policy initiatives to assess the potential risks and threats of quantum technologies 57

Policies for the transition to quantum-resistant cryptography 58

International coordination and the sharing of best practices 64

Promotion of enhanced quantum awareness in the public and private sectors 65

A future-ready workforce with quantum skills 65

Openness of research 67

Dual-use export control policies 68

Civilian and military coordination and cooperation 71

Possible future research areas of quantum technologies linked with cybersecurity 74

7. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 76

Support research at the intersection of quantum technologies and cybersecurity 76

Promote cryptographic agility and coordinating policies at the EU level to ease the transition to quantum-resistant cryptography 77

Foster the standardisation of quantum-resistant cryptography 78

Encourage initiatives to assess the potential risks and threats posed by quantum technologies 79

Apply a principles-based approach to quantum governance and strengthen international coordination 80

Enhance quantum awareness in both the public and private sectors 81

Implement policies to promote a future-ready workforce with quantum and cybersecurity skills 81

Update dual-use and export control policies 82

BIBLIOGRAPHY 83

APPENDIX A. LIST OF TASK FORCE MEMBERS AND INVITED SPEAKERS 87

APPENDIX B. QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY IN THE EU AND REST OF THE WORLD 90

APPENDIX C. EXAMPLES OF THE TRANSITION TO QUANTUM-RESISTANT CRYPTOGRAPHY IN SELECTED COUNTRIES 101

Table 1. Principles of responsible quantum technologies 47

Figure 1. Illustration of the power of qubits 14

Figure 2. Quantum technologies - Estimated value unlocked by applying quantum technologies in various industries 22

Figure 3. Expert estimates of the likelihood of a quantum computer breaking RSA-2048 in 24 hours (different time frames) 26

Figure 4. Quantum Readiness Toolkit 39

Figure 5. Public and private financing for quantum technologies worldwide 49

Figure 6. TNO PQC Migration Handbook, post-quantum cryptography personas 62

Figure 7. Decision tree for migration scenarios 63

Figure 8. Quantum skills gap 66

Figure 9. Timeline for the NATO quantum strategy 72

Boxes

Box 1. The double-slit experiment 15

Box 2. NIST standardisation competition 34

Box 3. Migrating to quantum-resistant signatures later than quantum-resistant key exchange 36

Box 4. Quantum exceptionality and ethics 44

Box 5. Fostering equitable quantum access: The Open Quantum Institute 50

Box 6. Standardisation policies beyond NIST 56

Box 7. In detail: The NCCoE PQC project 60

Box 8. Military applications of quantum computing 69

Box Figures

Figure B1.1. Wave behaviour in double-slit experiment 15

Figure B1.2. Particle behaviour in double-slit experiment 16

Figure B1.3. Quantum behaviour of electrons in double-slit experiment 16

Figure B7.1. Timeline for NCCoE migration to quantum-resistant cryptography 61

Table B.1. Quantum funding in the EU (EUR million) 90

Table B.2. Plans and policies implemented by the Chinese government from 1986 to 2018 98

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