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Title page
Contents
Foreword 6
Acknowledgments 7
Abbreviations 8
Units of Measurement 8
Summary 9
1. Introduction 12
2. Methods 15
2.1. Selection of Countries 16
2.2. Selection of Climate Scenarios 16
2.3. Modeling and Analytical Approach 19
2.4. Data 24
3. Impacts of Climate Change on Health and the Economic Cost of Inaction 25
3.1. Impacts of Climate Change on Health 26
3.2. Economic Cost of Inaction 27
4. Discussion 30
4.1. Summary of Key Findings 31
4.2. Comparison of Findings with Key Literature 32
4.3. Study Caveats 34
4.4. Policy Implications and Future Directions 36
Annex 1. Countries Included in the Analysis 37
Annex 2. SSPs and RCPs 40
Annex 3. Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Morbidity and Mortality 44
Annex 4. Modeling Fatality Rates 49
Annex 5. Estimating YLL from Climate Change 53
Annex 6. Estimating the Economic Cost of Climate-Related Health Impacts 56
Annex 7. Cumulative Estimates of the Impacts of Climate Change on Morbidity and Mortality in the Short Term and Long Term 76
Annex 8. Economic Cost of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Short Term and Long Term 78
References 79
Table 1. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 17
Table 2. Comparative Analysis of Approaches: WHO (2014) and This Report 19
Table 3. Cumulative Number of Cases Attributable to Climate Change: 2026-2050 26
Table 4. Cumulative Number of Deaths Attributable to Climate Change: 2026-2050 27
Table 5. Cumulative Economic Cost of the Health Impacts of Climate Change: 2026-2050 28
Figure 1. SSPs and RCPs 18
Figure 2. Distribution of the Economic Cost of the Health Impacts of Climate Change Across Regions: 2026-2050 29
Annex Tables
Table A.1. LMICs Included in the Analysis 37
Table A.2. Total Projected Regional Population 41
Table A.3. Total Projected Regional GDP (Trillion USD) 41
Table A.4. Modeling Malaria's Fatality Rate 51
Table A.5. Estimating Life Expectancies 53
Table A.6. Age Distribution of Deaths from Malaria in Nigeria in 2020 54
Table A.7. Age Distribution of Deaths from Malaria in Cameroon in 2020 55
Table A.8. Estimated Country-Specific Values for VSL (USD) - SSP3 57
Table A.9. Estimated Country-Specific Values for VSL (USD) - SSP2 59
Table A.10. Estimated Country-Specific Values for COI Dengue (USD) - SSP3 62
Table A.11. Estimated Country-Specific Values for COI Dengue (USD) - SSP2 64
Table A.12. Estimated Country-Specific Values for COI Malaria (USD) - SSP3 66
Table A.13. Estimated Country-Specific Values for COI Malaria (USD) - SSP2 68
Table A.14. Estimated Country-Specific Values for COI Diarrhea (USD) - SSP3 70
Table A.15. Estimated Country-Specific Values for COI Diarrhea (USD) - SSP2 72
Table A.16. Cumulative Number of Cases Attributable to Climate Change: 2026-2030 76
Table A.17. Cumulative Number of Deaths Attributable to Climate Change: 2026-2030 76
Table A.18. Cumulative Number of Cases Attributable to Climate Change: 2026-2100 77
Table A.19. Cumulative Number of Deaths Attributable to Climate Change: 2026-2100 77
Table A.20. Economic Cost of the Health Impacts of Climate Change: 2026-2030 78
Table A.21. Economic Cost of the Health Impacts of Climate Change: 2026-2100 78
Annex Figures
Figure A.1. Population Growth under SSPs 40
Figure A.2. Economic Growth under SSPs 40
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