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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Threshold and compound risks, economic resilience, and fiscal policy: A framework 6

3. Empirical relationship between climate and fiscal policy 10

3.1. Methodology 10

3.2. Data 11

3.3. Results 12

4. Threshold and cascading effects in a macroeconomic model: An application 13

4.1. Natural disaster shock scenarios 14

4.2. Threshold and cascading effects and fiscal policy 17

5. Policy recommendations and final remarks 19

References 31

Annex A: Glossary on Risk Management 33

Annex B: Choice of governance indicators in panel local projection model 35

Annex C/Appendix C: MFMod further results 37

Tables 25

Table 1. Data sources 25

Table 2. The macroeconomic effects of a 5 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock without reconstruction 26

Table 3. The macroeconomic effects of a 5 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock with reconstruction financed by redirection of public investment 27

Table 4. The macroeconomic effects of a 5 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock with reconstruction financed by public debt issuance 28

Table 5. The macroeconomic effects of a 5 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock with reconstruction financed by reduction in public expenditure 29

Table 6. The macroeconomic effects of a 5 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock with reconstruction financed by increase in public revenue 30

Figures 22

Figure 1. Distribution of natural disasters over time and across regions 22

Figure 2. Impact of natural disasters on output 23

Figure 3. Response of GDP, consumer prices, and fiscal balance (as percentage of GDP and difference to no-disaster baseline) to a 5 percent (left) and 10 percent (right)... 24

Annex Tables 35

Table B1. Pairwise correlation across six different world governance indicators 35

Table C1. The macroeconomic effects of a 10 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock without reconstruction 37

Table C2. The macroeconomic effects of a 10 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock with reconstruction financed by redirection of public investment 38

Table C3. The macroeconomic effects of a 10 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock with reconstruction financed by public debt issuance 39

Table C4. The macroeconomic effects of a 10 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock with reconstruction financed by reduction in public expenditure 40

Table C5. The macroeconomic effects of a 10 percent climate-induced shock to capital stock with reconstruction financed by increase in public revenue 41

Annex Figures 36

Figure B1. Hierarchical Clustering of different governance indicators 36

초록보기

The impacts of climate change on developing economies are becoming increasingly severe, creating challenges for risk management and requiring enhanced levels of resilience.

This paper explores how to mitigate the effects of such climate shocks on developing economies, placing a particular focus on the role fiscal policy in creating and strengthening an economy’s resilience. Using data on natural disasters, the analysis shows that economies with constrained fiscal space experience more pronounced negative effects. In an application to a small open economy, the paper tests the presence of the non-linearity of short- and long-run disaster impacts in the World Bank’s macroeconomic and fiscal model and illustrates the importance of fiscal policy in mitigating shocks.

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