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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색
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Title page 1

Contents 4

About the Authors 5

Acronyms and Abbreviations 5

Introduction 6

Scenario 1: Reform of the Existing Global System 9

Scenario 2: Replacement of the Existing Global System 11

Scenario 3: The Emergence of a Bloc-Based Global System 14

Scenario 4: A Case of Disorder 18

Scenario 5: Transformed Global Order 21

Conclusions 25

Works Cited 26

Tables 15

Table 1. Comparative Analysis - Existing Trade and Security Arrangements and Potential New Ones 15

Figures 8

Figure 1. Five Core Scenarios for Evolving Global Order (and Pathways) 8

초록보기

The global order is under strain, propelled by the complex interplay of numerous trends and impacts. Converging factors are redefining the contours of the international system, necessitating significant adaptation by states. While the forces for change are evident, the trajectory of the new order remains highly uncertain. This CIGI special report seeks to fill a gap between the analysis of current trends and mapping of potential futures by outlining five possible scenarios for an evolving global order. These five scenarios represent a spectrum from the most modest plausible change (reform of the current system) to the most radical (transformation of the whole system due to a global shock). It is hoped that the report’s analysis will stimulate critical thinking and discussion and will help equip policy makers with the foresight necessary to navigate an uncertain future.

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