Title Page

Abstract

Contents

Abbreviation 10

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 13

1.1. Objectives 17

1.2. Research Questions 17

1.3. Significance of the study 18

1.4. Scope of the study 18

1.5. Thesis Organization 18

CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 20

2.1. Current status of the world climate 20

2.1.1. Current trends of global warming and its causes 20

2.1.2. Climate change and impacts 21

2.2. Greenhouse Gas Estimation in Oil Industry 22

2.2.1. American Petroleum Institute (API) Compendium Methodology 24

2.2.2. IPCC Guideline Estimation Methodology 26

2.2.3. Choice of Emission Factor (EF) 29

2.3. Legislation on hydrocarbons in DR Congo 30

2.3.1. Legal framework for hydrocarbons sector 30

2.3.2. Title II: Upstream Oil and Gas activities 32

CHAPTER 3. RESEARCH METHODS 40

3.1. Study area 40

3.1.1. Geographical background 40

3.2. Choice of method, decision trees and tiers 41

3.3. Data collection/Data availability 42

3.3.1. Muanda's oil drilling map 47

3.4. Data analysis and IPCC Software 48

3.4.1. Data Forecasting with Excel Software 53

CHAPTER 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 55

4.1. Estimation of CO₂ and CH₄ emissions from 2005-2022 55

4.1.1. First emission scenario: Analysis of GHG for 2005-2008 57

4.1.2. Second emission scenario: Analysis of GHG for 2009-2017 58

4.1.3. Third emission scenario: Analysis of GHG for 2018-2022 59

4.2. Future projections of GHG from oil production by 2030 60

CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSIONS 62

5.1. Summary 62

5.2. Policy Implications 64

5.2.1. Government 64

5.2.2. The oil industry 64

5.2.3. Civil society 65

5.3. Limitations 65

REFERENCES 66

국문초록 68

Table 1.1. National Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Millions of tons CO2-eq) 15

Table 2.1. GHG estimation formula based on API Compendium Method 25

Table 2.2. Tier 1 emission factors for oil production 29

Table 3.1. DRC Oil production from 2005-2022 43

Table 3.2. DRC's Flare volume estimates 2012-2022 by individual flare location 43

Table 3.3. Annual sum and average of gas flared gas volumes from 2012-2022 46

Table 4.1. GHG emissions (CO2 and CH4) from oil production of DR Congo for 2005-2022 56

Table 4.2. GHG future projections by 2030 60

Figure 1.1. Trends in the DRC's national GHG emissions by gas 15

Figure 1.2. Contribution of emissions by sector 16

Figure 1.3. Study Flow 19

Figure 2.1. Key segments included in oil system 27

Figure 3.1. Insert of the Study Area in the Nation Geographical Context 41

Figure 3.2. Decision tree for oil and gas systems 42

Figure 3.3. Histogram of annual sum and average of flared gas volumes from 2012-2022 47

Figure 3.4. Offshore and onshore oil wells from Muanda 48

Figure 3.5. basic data relations (IPCC Inventory Software User manual 2.87) 49

Figure 3.6. Basic software modules (IPCC Inventory Software User manual 2.87) 49

Figure 3.7. Summary of the first step in running the IPCC software ((IPCC Inventory Software User manual 2.87) 50

Figure 3.8. User management 51

Figure 3.9. Category subdivision of Fugitive emissions-Oil and Natural Gas 52

Figure 3.10. Forecasting sheet for the forecasting group in the Excel 2016 data tab 54

Figure 4.1. GHG emissions from oil production for 2005-2022 57

Figure 4.2. GHG emissions from first scenario 2005-2008 58

Figure 4.3. GHG emissions from second scenario 2009-2017 59

Figure 4.4. GHG emissions from third scenario 2018-2022 60

Figure 4.5. Future projections of GHG from oil production by 2030 61