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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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Purpose: The objective of this study is to examine the resilience of the live chicken price to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. Specifically, this research assesses whether the HPAI outbreak exerted a significant influence on market dynamics and, if so, the duration required for the market to recover to pre-outbreak conditions.

Research design, data, and methodology: We used daily broiler prices provided by KAPE in South Korea, reflecting prices at the distribution stage between farmers and wholesalers. The analysis period extends from August 2, 2017, to March 19, 2018. Four seasons of HPAI are considered, spanning from the 8th(2017/2018) to the 11th(2022/2023) outbreaks. Intervention-ARIMA model is employed to analyze the resilience of live chicken prices after HPAI outbreaks. Corresponding intervention-ARIMA models were constructed for each outbreak season, and the results were derived accordingly.

Results: We analyzed the effect of four highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks from the 8th to the 11th in terms of market resilience. Our findings indicate a decreasing impact of HPAI outbreaks on the broiler market over time, coupled with progressively faster recovery periods. Specifically, the 8th AI outbreak resulted in a sustained price decline, the 9th AI outbreak led to a sustained price increase, the 10th AI outbreak saw market prices fully recover within one day, and the 11th AI outbreak had no significant impact on market prices.

Implications: The reduced impact and accelerated resilience of HPAI outbreaks in recent years may be attributed to the learning effect among traders in the secondary market. This phenomenon is likely a result of two decades of experience with HPAI outbreaks, coupled with stringent quarantine guidelines. Consequently, it is imperative to meticulously review and consider revisions to these quarantine guidelines in light of these findings.

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