국내기사
건물부문 평등주의 탄소예산 적용을 통한 광역지자체별 온실가스 감축경로 시나리오 = GHG mitigation pathway scenarios for metropolitan governments under an equality-based carbon budget in the building sector
This study proposes a methodology for designing equality-based carbon budget pathways for the building sector across Korea’s 17 metropolitan governments, grounded in the 2030NDC and the 2050 carbon neutrality scenario. National annual emission targets for the building (direct and indirect) and transformation sectors are interpreted as a 2018–2030 carbon budget, with missing years linearly interpolated. Current allocation practice is represented as a grandfathering principle, after which an egalitarian (population-share) principle is introduced to construct adjusted scenarios with convergence years in 2030, 2040, and 2050. National trajectories are approximated using a piecewise-linear pathway with a single turning point (direct: 2026; indirect: 2028), from which annual reduction slopes and local carbon budgets are derived. Results indicate that high per-capita emitting regions face steeper and earlier reductions under the egalitarian framework, while more populous regions experience a relative easing of reduction burdens. For the direct building sector under convergence in 2030, Seoul’s 2030 target decreases from 7.59 to 6.21 MtCO2, whereas Gyeonggi-do’s increases from 7.39 to 9.74 MtCO2. In addition, Seoul’s required annual reduction rate increases from 192 to 347 ktCO2/yr up to the 2026 turning point and from 542 to 577 ktCO2/yr thereafter, illustrating the front-loaded mitigation implied by egalitarian convergence. The proposed framework supports consistent target setting between national and local levels and provides a transparent basis for integrating alternative equity principles in future studies.