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국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색

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This study examines the economic and social impacts of Middle Eastern refugee inflows after the Arab Spring, focusing on GDP, labor-force participation, and the Human Capital Index from 2010– 2023. Using system GMM on a panel of 217 countries, we assess how refugee movements shape host economies. Results show positive but statistically insignificant associations, implying limited immediate effects. Yet potential long-term gains from integration—especially stronger labor markets and human-capital formation—are evident.

Outcomes hinge on host-country policies, underscoring inclusive labor markets and education. These findings challenge “burden” narratives, supporting evidence-based policies that counter misinformation and showing that well-managed inflows can bolster economic resilience and social development. We also observe cross-country heterogeneity, with more favorable trajectories where early work authorization and credential recognition are adopted.

Future research should leverage subnational variation and quasi-experimental designs to identify causal mechanisms and distributional effects.