Against intensifying global AI competition and stark regional disparities in China, this study addresses AI industry growth imbalance via 2018–2023 panel data of 31 provinces. Integrating a “economic foundation-innovation input-industrial ecology” framework with a spatial-institutional heterogeneity perspective, it explores AI strategic layout’s driving mechanisms and regional paths. Key findings: AI fixed-asset investment dominates; per capita GDP has an ¥80,000 threshold effect reducible by institutional innovation; R&D shows an S-shaped regional response; high-tech enterprises realize full mediation via digital employment. Eastern, central and western China form distinct development modes. This study reconstructs the theoretical framework and offers empirical support for targeted AI development policies.