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[표제지 등]=0,1,2

연구보고서=0,3,1

목차=i,4,3

Contents=iv,7,3

List of Figures=vii,10,6

List of Tables=xiii,16,2

요약문=xv,18,2

Summary=xvii,20,3

제1장 서론=1,23,1

제1절 연구의 필요성=1,23,2

제2절 국내외 관련 연구=2,24,5

제3절 연구 목표 및 내용=6,28,1

제2장 집중관측 및 자료분석=7,29,1

제1절 겨울철 집중관측=7,29,1

1. 종관기상 상태=7,29,1

가. 1월 사례=7,29,1

나. 2월 사례=7,29,5

2. 관측자료=12,34,1

가. 1월 집중관측=12,34,1

나. 2월 집중관측=12,34,2

제2절 봄철 집중관측=13,35,1

1. 종관기상 상태=13,35,1

2. 관측자료=13,35,3

제3절 여름철 집중관측(KEOP-2005)=15,37,1

1. 종관기상 상태=15,37,6

2. 관측자료=21,43,3

3. 관측자료 분석=23,45,1

가. 여름철 존데관측=23,45,4

나. 여름철 플럭스관측=26,48,1

제3장 예측가능성 분석=27,49,1

제1절 서론=27,49,1

제2절 정지위성의 TBB 자료를 이용한 강수 예측성 분석=28,50,1

1. 자료=28,50,3

2. 분석 및 결과=30,52,1

가. 분석 방법 (2차원 자기상관 함수)=30,52,3

나. 대류지수=32,54,2

다. Hovmoller 다이어그램 분석(이미지 참조)=33,55,6

제3절 수치모의한 여름철 강수의 동조성=39,61,1

1. 자료 및 분석 방법=39,61,1

2. 분석 결과=39,61,1

가. Hovmoller(이미지 참조)=39,61,6

나. 주기성=44,66,4

다. 일변화=47,69,3

제4절 결론=50,72,1

제4장 강수특성분석과 관측 자료의 민감도 실험=51,73,1

제1절 여름철 강수 형태 분류 및 분석=51,73,1

1. 서론=51,73,3

2. 여름철 강수 특성 분석(2005)=54,76,5

3. 여름철 강수 형태 분류와 종관분석(2003-2005)=59,81,7

4. 요약 및 결론=66,88,2

제2절 여름철 집중 관측 자료의 민감도 실험=68,90,1

1. 서론=68,90,2

2. 자료 및 실험설계=69,91,1

가. 자료동화 시스템=69,91,2

나. 실험설계 및 자료=70,92,3

3. 관측자료의 민감도 실험 결과=72,94,1

가. 기상개황=72,94,3

나. 민감도 실험결과=74,96,6

4. 예측의 민감도=79,101,1

가. 누적강수=79,101,3

나. TS를 이용한 강수검증=82,104,2

다. RMSE를 이용한 검증=83,105,4

5. 요약 및 결론=86,108,2

제5장 장수 돌풍 사례 분석=88,110,1

제1절 서론=88,110,2

제2절 배경장 분석=90,112,12

제3절 국지 관측 분석=101,123,1

1. 군산 NEXRAD 레이더 관측 및 분석=102,124,2

2. 장수 지점의 AWS 시계열 분석=103,125,2

3. 군산 윈드프로파일러 분석=105,127,2

제4절 대류세포의 구조 분석=106,128,1

1. 바람과 반사도의 3차원 구조=106,128,3

2. 레이더 자료를 사용하지 않았을 경우와의 차이 분석=108,130,5

제5절 요약 및 결론=113,135,1

제6장 요약 및 향후 계획=114,136,3

참고문헌=117,139,10

부록=127,149,1

1. 여름철 집중관측(KEOP-2005) 기간의 지상일기도=128,150,18

2. 학술용역과제 결과 보고서 : 가. 장마전선의 접근에 따른 한반도 남서지역 플럭스 집중관측=146,168,1

목차=147,169,1

1. 용역 개요=148,170,1

1.1. 용역명=148,170,1

1.2. 관측 개요=148,170,1

2. 플럭스 관측=148,170,1

2.1. 관측 기간=148,170,1

2.2. 관측 지점=148,170,1

2.3. 관측 장비=148,170,3

2.4. 자료 처리=150,172,3

2.5. 관측방법과 관측요소=152,174,1

3. 관측 기간 기상 상태=153,175,1

4. 관측 결과=154,176,1

4.1. 플럭스 관측 결과=154,176,20

5. 요약=174,196,2

3. KEOP DB 시스템 개발 완료보고서=176,198,1

목차=177,199,1

1. 개발개요=178,200,1

1.1. 개발의 목적=178,200,1

1.2. 개발 배경=178,200,1

1.3. 시스템의 특징=178,200,1

2. 개발 범위=179,201,1

2.1. 개발 절차와 업무 범위=180,202,1

2.2. 시스템 개발 내용=181,203,1

3. 기존 KEOP 홈페이지 시스템 개요=182,204,1

3.1. UI=182,204,1

3.2. 시스템 특징=182,204,1

4. 관련 기술 검토=183,205,1

4.1. Web 모델별 구조=183,205,3

4.2. Web 관련 기술=186,208,1

4.3. Web Client/Server 구조=186,208,1

5. 새 KEOP 홈페이지 시스템 구조=187,209,1

5.1. 시스템 구성도=187,209,2

5.2. 시스템 구성요소=189,211,2

5.3. DB ERD=191,213,1

5.4. DB 구성=192,214,2

5.5. 새 KEOP 홈페이지의 메뉴 구성도=194,216,1

5.6. 새 KEOP 홈페이지의 UI=195,217,1

6. 프로그램 설명=196,218,1

6.1. ftp 프로그램 설명 및 순서도=196,218,2

6.2. Data 변환 및 DB 입력 프로그램 설명=197,219,1

7. 개발 추진 일정=198,220,1

8. 투입 인력=199,221,1

9. 문의처=199,221,1

List of Figures

Fig. 2.1.1. Surface Weather Charts And Satellite Images (a)0000UTC, (b)0600UTC, And (c)1200UTC 21 January 2005=8,30,1

Fig. 2.1.2. Time Series Of Temperature, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Precipitation, Relative Humidity, And Pressure At Haenam AWS Site 21 January 2005=9,31,1

Fig. 2.1.3. Surface Weather Charts From 31 January To 3 February 2005=9,31,1

Fig. 2.1.4. 500hPa Weather Charts From 31 January To 3 February 2005=10,32,1

Fig. 2.1.5. Snowfall From 31 January To 3 February 2005=11,33,1

Fig. 2.1.6. Maximum Altitude Of Autosonde Observation Of Each Time From 0400UTC 21 To 1900UTC 3 February 2005=12,34,1

Fig. 2.1.7. Maximum Altitude Of Autosonde Observation Of Each Time From 0500UTC 31 January To 0200UTC January 2005=13,35,1

Fig. 2.2.1. Surface Weather Charts From 2 May 2005 To 3 May 2005=14,36,1

Fig. 2.2.2. Maximum Altitude Of Autosonde Observation Of Each Time From 0500UTC 31 January To 0200UTC January 2005=15,37,1

Fig. 2.3.1. Keop-2005 Observational Network=16,38,1

Fig. 2.3.2. Surface (Left), 500hPa (Middle), And 200hPa(Right) Weather Charts At The Beginning Time Of Changma (From 1200UTC 24 Jun 2005 To 0000UTC 26 June 2005)=17,39,1

Fig. 2.3.3. Surface Weather Charts And Satellite Images (a)0000UTC 28 June, (b) 0000UTC 1 July, And (c) 0900UTC 28 July 2005=18,40,1

Fig. 2.3.4. Radar Imageries(Left Panels) And Precipitation Per Day(Right Panels) At (a)0000UTC 28 June, (b) 0000UTC 1 July, And (c) 0900UTC 28 July 2005=19,41,1

Fig. 2.3.5. Surface(Upper Panels), 500hPa(Middle Panels), And 200hPa(Lower Panels) At The Ending Time Of Changma(From 17 July 2005 To 28 July 2005)=20,42,1

Fig. 2.3.6. Maximum Altitude Of Each Observation Site Of Each Time From 19 June To 18 July 2005=22,44,1

Fig. 2.3.7. The Vertical Distribution Of (a) Equivalent Potential Temperature, (b)U- Component Of Wind, And (c)V-Component Of Wind. Vertical bars(d) Represents Precipitation During Summertime In 2005=24,46,1

Fig. 2.3.8. Time Series Of (a)Net Radiation, (b)Sensible Heat Flux, (c)Latent Heat Flux, And (d) Soil Water Contents During Summertime In 2005=25,47,1

Fig. 3.2.1. Domain For The Hovmoller Calculation (Thick Line: 20°~40°N, 105°~135°E)(이미지 참조)=29,51,1

Fig. 3.2.2. A Schematic Illustration Of The Negative Cosine-Rectangular Weighting Function That Was Rotated Until The Autocorrelation Coefficient Was Maximized=30,52,1

Fig. 3.2.3. The Convective Index Derived From GOES-9 Brightness Temperature (Upper Pane) And The Total Amount Of Precipitation Rate (mm/h) At 11 Sites Located In The Southwest Of Korea (Lower Panel)=32,54,1

Fig. 3.2.4. Hovmoller Diagram Of Convective Index (CI) Derived From GOES-9 Brightness Temperature For (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer And (d) Fall, Where The Period Of Winter Is Represented Two Months(이미지 참조)=33,55,1

Fig. 3.2.5. Hovmoller(Left) And Streak(Right) Diagram For Changma Period (2004.6.24 - 2004. 7. 17)(이미지 참조)=34,56,1

Fig. 3.2.6. The Scatter Plot Of Span And Duration Of All Identified Cloud Streaks For The Period Of (a) Changma And (b) Summer=36,58,1

Fig. 3.2.7. The Scatter Plot Of Span(Left Two Panels) And Duration(Right Tow Panels) That Compared With Propagation For The Period Of Changma(Upper Two Panels) And Sumrner(Under Two Panels)=37,59,1

Fig. 3.3.1. Hovmoller (Longitude-Time : Time In UTC) Diagram Of Convective Index Which Is Defined As A Difference Of Water Vapor Channel (IR3) Brightness Temperature And Infrared Channel (IR1) For The Period Of 25 June And 12 July 2005(이미지참조)=40,62,1

Fig. 3.3.2. Latitude-Time Plots (Time In UTC) Of Convective Index For The Periods Of 25 June-12 July 2005=41,63,2

Fig. 3.3.3. (a) Hovmoller Diagram Of Rianfall From WRF Model For The Period Of 25 June And 12 July 2005.(이미지 참조)=42,64,1

Fig. 3.3.4. Same Fig. 3. 1. 9, But For WRF Rainfall Forecast. Daily Rainfall Is Composed With 7-12- Hour Forecasts=44,66,1

Fig. 3.3.5. Power Spectrum Of The Convective Index Averaged Over 5 Longitudinal Bands At (a) 105-110°E, (b) 110-115°E, (c) 115-120°E, (d) 120-125°E, (E) 125-130°E, (F) 130-135°E For 25 June-12 July 2005=45,67,1

Fig. 3.3.6. Same As Fig. 3.3.5, But For WRF Rainfall Forecasts=46,68,1

Fig. 3.3.7. (a) Time-Longitude Convective Index Diagram For 25 June-12 July 2005=48,70,1

Fig. 3.3.8. (a) Time-Latitude Convective Index Diagram For 25 June-12 July 2005=49,71,1

Fig. 4.1.1. Stacked Doppler Spectra From Manus Island 915-MHS Wind Profiler For 0058:50 UTC 29 July 1992=52,74,1

Fig. 4.1.2. Logical Flow Diagram Of Rain Classification Algorithm (From Williams et al., 1995)=54,76,1

Fig. 4.1.3. Frequency Distribution Of Doppler Spectral Moments For Precipitating Clouds Classified As Stratiform Clouds During The Summertime(June-August)=57,79,1

Fig. 4.1.4. Same As Fig. 4.1.3 Except For Precipitating Clouds Classified As Mixed Stratiform/Convective Clouds=57,79,1

Fig. 4.1.5. Same As Fig. 4.1.3 Except For Precipitating Clouds Classified As Deep Convective Clouds=58,80,1

Fig. 4.1.6. Same As Fig. 4.1.3 Except For Precipitating Clouds Classified As Shallow Convective Clouds=58,80,1

Fig. 4.1.7. Occurrence Frequency Of Each Rain Type In Precipitating Cloud System Observed During Summer Season In (a)2003, (b)2004, And (c)2005 At Haenam Site=60,82,1

Fig. 4.1.8. Percentage Of Precipitation Categories During Changma Period=61,83,1

Fig. 4.1.9. Horizontal Distribution Of Total Amount Precipitation(mm) During Changma Period In 2003 (a) And 2004 (b) Using GPCP 1° X 1 ° Daily Data=62,84,1

Fig. 4.1.10. Horizontal Distribution Of 850hPa Vorticity And Moisture Flux Averaged During Changma Period In 2003 (a), 2004 (b), And 2005 (c)=64,86,1

Fig. 4.1.11. Vertical Cross Section Of Averaged Equivalent Potential Temperature And Streamline During Changma Period Along 127°E In 2003(a), 128°E In 2004 (b), And 128°E In 2005 Between 20°N And 55°N=65,87,1

Fig. 4.2.1. The Schematic Diagram Of (a) WRF/KLAPS 6-hr Assimilation Cycle And (b) Cold Start System=70,92,1

Fig. 4.2.2. The Domain For Numerical Experiments And KEOP-2005 Observational Sites(이미지 참조)=71,93,1

Fig. 4.2.3. The Surface Weather Charts(Left). MTSAT Enhanced IR Imageries (Middle), And Radar Imageries (Right) At 1800UTC 8 July 2004 And In 12 Hours(CASE I)=73,95,1

Fig. 4.2.4. Same As Fig. 4.2.2 Except For 1800UTC 10 July 2004(Case II)=73,95,1

Fig. 4.2.5. Same As Fig. 4.2.2 Except For 1800UTC 11 July 2004(Case III)=74,96,1

Fig. 4.2.6. Horizontal Difference Map Of 850hPa Temperature ((a),(b)), 700hPa Water Vapor Mixing Ratio ((c),(d)), And Geopotential Height ((e),(f)) With Wind Of SND II From CNT For 1800UTC 8 July 2005=76,98,1

Fig. 4.2.7. Same As Fig. 4.2.6 Except For 1800UTC 11 July 2005=77,99,1

Fig. 4.2.8. Horizontal Difference Map Of 850hPa Temperature ((a),(b)), 700hPa Water Vapor Mixing Ratio ((c),(d)), And Geopotential Height (e),(f)) With Wind Of SND I From CNT For 1800UTC 10 July 2005=78,100,1

Fig. 4.2.9. Simulated((a)CNT, (b)SND II), Difference Of Snd II From CNT(c), And Observed(d) 12-Hours Accumulated Rainfall Amount At 1800UTC 8 July 2005=80,102,1

Fig. 4.2.10. Same As Fig. 4.2.9 Except Fot 1800UTC 11 July 2005=80,102,1

Fig. 4.2.11. Simulated((a)CNT, (b)SND I ), Difference Of SND I From CNT(c), And Observed(d) 12-Hours Accumulated Rainfall Amount At 1800UTC 8 July 2005=81,103,1

Fig. 4.2.12. Threat Score Of Cnt(Opened Circle), SND I (Filled Circle), And SND II (Filled Triangle) Relative To Cooperative AWS Stations For Various Thresholds Of 12-hourly Accumulated Precipitation (Inch) At 1800UTC 10 July 2005=83,105,1

Fig. 4.2.13. Terrain With Radiosonde Sites. Dashed Circles Are Representing Verification Areas=84,106,1

Fig. 4.2.14. RMSE In CNT(Dark Gray) And SND I(Black) : 8500hPa Temperature(Upper), 500hPa V-Component Wind Speed(Middle), MSLP(Bottom). X-Axis Of Chart Is Representing Forecast Time=85,107,1

Fig. 4.2.15. Same As Fig. 4.2.14 Except For 850hPa Temperature=86,108,1

Fig. 5.2.1. Surface Charts And IR Images Of GOES 9 From 0000UTC To 1800UTC On July 1, 2005=91,113,1

Fig. 5.2.2. The Panels In Column (a) Include Equivalent Potential Temperature(EPT) On 850hPa Surface With Wind Vectors Of The Same Pressure Level=94,116,2

Fig. 5.2.3. Comparison Of The Analyzed Field At 0000UTC On July 1,2005 And The 1 Hour Forecasted Field From This Time=97,119,1

Fig. 5.2.4. The Evolution Of The Changma Front From 0000UTC To 1800UTC On July 1, 2005. The Explanation Of The Figure Is The Same As That Of The Fig.5.2.3=98,120,2

Fig. 5.3.1. The Domain And Topography Of The Analysis Area. The Filled Circle Indicates The Center Of The Domain As Well As The Gunsan NEXRAD Site=101,123,1

Fig. 5.3.2. The Remapped Reflectivity Factor On 925hPa Level From 1400UTC To 1800UTC On July 1,2005 In 30 Minutes Interval=102,124,2

Fig. 5.3.3. The AWS Time Series Of Jangsu Observatory From 0000KST To 1200KST On July 2, 2005=104,126,1

Fig. 5.3.4. The Wind Profiler Observation From Gunsan Site. The Period Is From 0000KST To 0800KST On July 2, 2005=105,127,1

Fig. 5.4.1. The 12 Minutes Forecast From The Initial Time At 1700UTC On July 1, 2005. In (a), The 925hPa Radar Reflectivity Factor And Circulation Wind Vectors Are Displayed=107,129,1

Fig. 5.4.2. Three Dimensional Display Of The Convective Cell At The Same Time Of The (e) Of The Fig. 5.4.1, But The View Point Is The North-East Side Of The Convective Cell While That Of The (e) Of The Fig. 5.4.1 Is South=108,130,1

Fig. 5.4.3. The One Minute Forecast From 1700UTC On July 1, 2005=109,131,1

Fig. 5.4.4. Storm Relative Helicity At The One Minutes Forecast From 1700UTC=110,132,2

Fig. 5.4.5. The 40 Minutes Forecast From 1700UTC On July 1, 2005. Others Are The Same As Those Of The Fig. 5.4.3=111,133,1

List of Tables

Table 2.3.1. Imformation Of KEOP-2005 Targeting Observation=21,43,1

Table 4.1.1. Criteria For The Classification Of Precipitating Clouds Using Doppler Spectral Moments From The Wind Profiler At Haenam=55,77,1

Table 4.2.1. The Configuration Of Numerical Simulation Model=71,93,1

Table 4.2.2. The Experimental Design=72,94,1

Table 4.2.3. Rain Contingency table=82,104,1

Table 5.3.1. The AWS Record of Jangsu Observatory From 0210KST To 0235 KST On July 2, 2005=104,126,1