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[표제지]=0,1,1

차례=i,2,1

그림차례=ii,3,2

표차례=iv,5,1

1. 서론=1,6,1

2. 전체 작업 구성=1,6,1

2.1. 전체 작동 쉘과 세부 쉘의 입출력 파일=1,6,15

2.2. 일방형 둥지 격자 체제의 구동=16,21,2

2.3. 3DVAR 입력을 위한 관측 전처리 과정=18,23,3

3. 통합 3DVAR에서 사용하는 자료와 Namelist 구조=21,26,1

3.1. Namelist.3dvar=21,26,3

3.2. Namelist.input=23,28,2

3.3. 통합 3DVAR를 위한 배경자료=24,29,1

3.4. 배경오차 파일의 구조=24,29,2

3.5. 3DVAR를 이용한 예보 자료 검증=25,30,3

4. 통합 3DVAR의 컴파일과 전체 얼개=28,33,2

4.1. 디렉토리 구성=29,34,3

4.2. 통합 3DVAR의 주요 프로그램=31,36,4

5. 통합 3DVAR의 이론적 개요=35,40,1

5.1. 전체 시스템의 얼개=35,40,1

5.2. 배경오차 계산 과정=35,40,4

5.3. 통합 3DVAR의 조절변수=38,43,3

5.4. 현업 3DVAR 시스템과의 차이=40,45,3

6. 시험 결과=43,48,1

6.1. KWRF 예보로부터 생산된 배경오차=43,48,4

6.2. 3DVAR 분석 유무에 따른 강수 예측 성능=46,51,1

6.3. 튜닝된 배경오차를 사용한 경우=46,51,3

6.4. 사이클 간격에 따른 강수 예측 성능=48,53,2

6.5. 강수예보의 공간적 분포=49,54,2

6.6. 둥지 격자 KWRF에서의 강수 예측 성능(06년 2월)=51,56,1

7. 향후 계획=51,56,4

부록 A. kwrf_work_all_job.csh의 단계별 수행 시간=55,60,1

참고문헌=56,61,2

표차례

Table 1. Components Of "Gdps_Dync_Postw21_Grib.Csh"=5,10,1

Table 2. Components Of "Kwrf_Lc30_Prep_Bdy.Csh"=5,10,1

Table 3. Components Of "Kwrf_Lc30_Fcst.Csh"=6,11,1

Table 4. Components Of "Kwrf_Lc10_Prep_Ndown.Csh" : I. Replacement Of High Resolution Terrain And Geographical Information=7,12,1

Table 5. Components Of "Kwrf_Lc10_Prep_Ndown.Csh" : II. Generation Of Initial And Boundary Condition For Nested Domain=8,13,1

Table 6. Components Of "U3Vr_Prep_Data_Obs_Little.Csh"=9,14,2

Table 7. Components Of "U3Vr_Lc10_Prep_Data_Obs.Csh"=11,16,2

Table 8. Components Of "U3Vr_Lc10_Anal.Csh"=13,18,1

Table 9. Components Of "U3Vr_Lc10_Prep_Bc_Update.Csh"=14,19,1

Table 10. Kwrf_Lc10_Fcst.Csh의 구성=15,20,1

그림차례

Fig. 1. Description Of "Kwrf_Work_All_Job.Csh".=4,9,1

Fig. 2. Data Flow For A One-Way Nested Run(UCAR/NCAR User's Guide, 2005)=17,22,1

Fig. 3. Examples Of Observation Data Distribution Over KMA Model Domain : Global(Upper Panel), KWRF-30㎞(Lower Left) And Kwrf-10㎞(Lower Right)=20,25,1

Fig. 4. The Main Directories Of Unified 3DVAR And "DA_Sound" Directory=31,36,1

Fig. 5. Major Programs Of Unified 3DVAR=31,36,4

Fig. 6. Unified 3DVAR System Includes All Observation Preprocessor, Background Error Calculation, And 3DVAR. yo, B, Xb, And Xa Mean Observations, Background Error Statistics, Backgrounds, And Analysis, Respectively=36,41,1

Fig. 7. Outline Of Unified 3DVAR Structures(Barker Et Al., 2004)=36,41,1

Fig. 8. Major Differences Of 3DVAR Components Between Regional, Global, And Unified 3DVAR=40,45,1

Fig. 9. Expected Correlation Of Balanced Velocity Potential(Upper) And Temperature (Lower). X And Y Axis Show The Latitudinal Index Of Model Domain And Sigma Level=43,48,1

Fig. 10. (a) Eigen Value, (b) Eigen Vectors, And (c) Scale Length Of Stream Function Against 30 Vertical Modes. WRF And MM5 Mean The Background Error Statistics From KWRF And MM5 Of Operational 10㎞ Model System=44,49,1

Fig. 11. Horizontal Distribution Of Potential Temperature(Upper) At K＝11 Sigma Level And U Wind Increments At K＝7 Sigma Level By Temperature Observation (1˚K) Forced At The Center Of Model And K＝11 Sigma Level=45,50,1

Fig. 12. (a) Time Series Of 12 Hr Forecast Error Of Temperature Against Sounding Data, (b) Critical Success Index (CSI) And (c) Bias Score For Different Threshold Value During 12 Hr Period. Statistics Is Calculated Over August 2005=47,52,1

Fig. 13. Impacts Of Tuned Background Error Statistics On 3 Hr Cycling System. Left And Right Panel Represent Monthly CSI And BIAS For September 2005. SL0.5 And SL1.0 Means The Tuned And No Tuned Horizontal Correlation Length Scale=48,53,1

Fig. 14. (a) And (b) Are Same As Fig. 13(a) And (b) Except For Different Experiments. RDPS, SI Mean Same As Fig. 12 Except For U3VR-6h And 3h With 6 And 3 Hr Cycling Period. (c) Shows The Monthly Averaged 12Hr Forecast Error Against Sounding Data=49,54,1

Fig. 15. 12Hr Accumulated Rainfaii Amount From 12UTC 30 Sep To 00 UTC 1 Oct 2005. (a) Observation Precipitation, (b) +12 To +24 Forecast Rain From Initial Time On 00 UTC 30 Sep, (c) +0 To +12 Forecast Rain From 12UTC 30 Sep By SI Experiment=50,55,1

Fig. 16. CSI Scores For 0.1㎜(Left) And 1.0㎜ Threshold(Right) During 6 Hr Interval. RDAPS And U3VR-KWRF Mean By Operational Model And KWRF 10㎞ Model With Unified 3DVAR=51,56,1

Fig. 17. Initialization Performances In Terms Of Mean Absolute Surface Pressure Tendency Which Is Calculated In 10 Minutes Interval. CV5 Means U3VR Using KWRF Own Background Error Statistics By NMC Method=53,58,1

Fig. 18. Same As Fig. 17 Except For IAU And Nudging Technique=54,59,1

칼라목차

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Fig. 9. Expected Correlation Of Balanced Velocity Potential(Upper) And Temperature (Lower). X And Y Axis Show The Latitudinal Index Of Model Domain And Sigma Level=43,48,1

Fig. 15. 12Hr Accumulated Rainfaii Amount From 12UTC 30 Sep To 00 UTC 1 Oct 2005. (a) Observation Precipitation, (b) +12 To +24 Forecast Rain From Initial Time On 00 UTC 30 Sep, (c) +0 To +12 Forecast Rain From 12UTC 30 Sep By SI Experiment=50,55,1

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