태풍 단·장기 예측기술 개발 = Development of the short- and long-term forecast technology for typhoon. 4 / 기상청 국가태풍센터, 국립기상과학원 [편]

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일반도서 태풍 단·장기 예측기술 개발 = Development of the short- and long-term forecast technology for typhoon. 4

저자사항
기상청 국가태풍센터, 국립기상과학원 [편]
발행사항
서귀포 : 기상청 국가태풍센터, 2016
청구기호
551.6452 -17-4
자료실 서울관 서고(열람신청 후 1층 대출대)
형태사항
xxviii, 821 p. : 삽화, 도표 ; 26 cm
총서사항
예보기술지원 및 활용연구 = Development and application of technology for weather forecast ; 8
제어번호
MONO1201742897
주기사항
세부연구책임자: 전영신 ; 세세부연구책임자: 강남영
부록: 태풍분석 및 예측기술 개발(II)
참고문헌: p. 236-251
영어 요약 있음
연계정보
원문
외부기관 원문

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표제지

요약문 19

Summary 30

제1장 서론 32

제1절 연구 개발의 필요성 32

제2절 국내·외 연구 동향 36

제3절 연구 목표 및 내용 46

제2장 태풍 단기예측 기술개선 49

제1절 태풍의 급격한 강도발달 예측을 위한 기반 연구 49

1. 급격한 태풍발달 정의와 메카니즘 조사 49

제2절 MME 예측을 이용한 태풍 진로와 강도 예측기술 개선 62

1. 선택과 가중 MME를 이용한 태풍 진로와 강도 예측기술 개선 62

2. SME를 이용한 태풍 진로예측 기술개발 98

제3절 TRUM 개선사항 개요 109

1. TRUM 개선사항 개요 109

제4절 UM기반 태풍 실험모델 개발 120

1. UM을 활용한 태풍예측 개선연구 120

제3장 태풍 장기예측 기술 개선 144

제1절 태풍 장기예측 체계 운영 144

1. 태풍 장기예측 체계 운영 144

제2절 기후인자의 변동성에 따른 태풍 기후 분석 176

1. 엘니뇨-남방진동과 지구온난화의 변동에 따른 태풍 기후 연구 176

제3절 기후감시 모니터링 체계 구축 195

1. 태풍 기후분석을 위한 데이터 생성과 축적 195

제4장 태풍 분석 기술 개발 221

제1절 수치모델 자료를 활용한 열대저압부 발생탐지기법 개선 221

1. 열대저기압 발생탐지기술 검증 221

제2절 태풍 크기 분석기술 개발연구 236

1. 국내·외 태풍 크기 분석 연구 조사 236

2. 상당온위와 풍속자료를 이용한 태풍 크기 산출 기술 개발 249

제5장 요약 및 결론 260

참고문헌 267

부록 : 태풍분석 및 예측기술 개발(II) 284

1. 태풍 단기예측을 위한 기술 개발 313

2. 태풍 장기예측을 위한 기술 개발 484

3. 태풍 관련 관측자료 분석기술 개발 574

List of Tables

Table 2.1.1. The definitions of climatological and persistence and synoptic... 51

Table 2.2.1. Used numerical model for track forecast in this study 64

Table 2.2.2. Used numerical models for intensity forecast in this study 64

Table 2.2.3. Mean track forecast errors (km) of three different experiments for... 69

Table 2.2.4. Mean track forecast errors (km) of OMME and each model during... 70

Table 2.2.5. Comparison of SUPER and OMME 73

Table 2.2.6. Comparison of Pearson's correlation coefficients for maximum... 86

Table 2.2.7. Comparison of Pearson's correlation coefficients for central pressure... 87

Table 2.2.8. Pearson's correlation coefficients for maximum sustained wind... 88

Table 2.2.9. Pearson's correlation coefficients for central pressure of OMME and... 90

Table 2.2.10. MAE (m/s) of maximum sustained wind speeds for OMME and... 92

Table 2.2.11. MAE (hPa) of central pressure for OMME and numerical models... 94

Table 2.2.12. Mean track errors (km) for mean forecast of SMEs 100

Table 2.3.1. The coefficients for typhoon intensity 115

Table 2.4.1. Configuration of XLDAPS 122

Table 2.4.2. Module list for LDAPS running 124

Table 2.4.3. Experiment setting 134

Table 2.4.4. Mean track error 136

Table 2.4.5. Mean maximum wind speed error 138

Table 2.4.6. Mean central pressure error 141

Table 3.1.1. List of groups currently issuing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity 146

Table 3.1.2. Continued 147

Table 3.1.3. Dynamics and physical parameterization in the Glosea4 and Glosea5 149

Table 3.1.4. Comparison of total and average number of TCs in summer(JJA)... 150

Table 3.1.5. Comparison of total and average number of TCs in autumn... 151

Table 3.1.6. Comparison of total and average number of TCs in summer(JJA)... 154

Table 3.1.7. Comparison of total and average number of TCs in autumn... 154

Table 3.1.8. Comparison of total and average number of Typhoon in... 157

Table 3.1.9. Comparison of total and average number of Typhoon in autumn... 158

Table 3.1.10. Forecasts of typhoon activity in 2015 issued in June and August 160

Table 3.1.11. Forecasts of TC activity in 2015 issued in September and... 162

Table 3.1.12. Time series of the total number of TCs in the western North... 165

Table 3.1.13. Time series of the total number of TCs in the Korea peninsular... 166

Table 4.1.1. Analysis factors of TFOG and TCAF 227

Table 4.1.2. Meaning and scores depending on the tropical cyclone development... 228

Table 4.1.3. Hit rate and False alarm rate classification 228

Table 4.1.4. Monthly HR and FAR verification of TFOG (2012-2015) 229

Table 4.1.5. Monthly HR and FAR verification of TCAF (2012-2015) 231

Table 4.2.1. Defining the tropical cyclone radius of each operation... 237

Table 4.2.2. Tropical cyclone size information other than strong wind radius 237

Table 4.2.3. AMVs are assigned a level height for display on the CIMSS tropical... 242

Table 4.2.4. Typhoon that affected the Korean peninsula in 2015 250

Table 4.2.5. Typhoon size classification according to strong wind radius... 252

Table 4.2.6. Comparisons of the long radius analysis by KMA and the... 255

List of Figures

Fig. 1.2.1. Categories of MME techniques 37

Fig. 1.2.2. The method of Domain construction following storm 40

Fig. 2.1.1. Time series of operational mean absolute intensity errors (kt) from... 50

Fig. 2.1.2. The composite probability of RI determined for the... 52

Fig. 2.1.3. The relative weights of the a) Atlantic basin and b) eastern North... 54

Fig. 2.1.4. a) Atlantic and b) eastern Pacific reliability diagrams resulting... 56

Fig. 2.1.5. POD, FAR, PSS of the a) Atlantic basin and b) eastern Pacific... 58

Fig. 2.1.6. Scatter plots of observed maximum TC intensity from sea surface... 60

Fig. 2.1.7. The decision tree for typhoon intensity change classification... 61

Fig. 2.2.1. Schematic diagram of extrapolation and shift for numerical model... 65

Fig. 2.2.2. The algorithm of PLSR 67

Fig. 2.2.3. The schematic plot for three MME tests and OMME. Solid lines of... 69

Fig. 2.2.4. Mean track errors for OMME and numerical models during 2012-2015 71

Fig. 2.2.5. Track errors for OMME and numerical models during 2012-2015 72

Fig. 2.2.6. Comparison of mean track errors for OMME and SUPER in (a) 2013,... 74

Fig. 2.2.7. Forecasted tracks (left) and track errors (right) for OMME and... 76

Fig. 2.2.7. Continued at (d) 96 and (e) 120 h 77

Fig. 2.2.8. Forecasted tracks (left) and track errors (right) for OMME and numerical... 79

Fig. 2.2.8. Continued at (d) 96 and (e) 120 h 80

Fig. 2.2.9. Forecasted tracks (left) and track errors (right) for OMME and... 81

Fig. 2.2.9. Continued at (c) 72, (d) 96 and (e) 120 h 82

Fig. 2.2.10. Forecasted tracks (left) and track errors (right) for OMME and numerical... 84

Fig. 2.2.10. Continued (d) 96 and (e) 120 h 85

Fig. 2.2.11. The schematic plot for three MME tests and OMME. OMME is the... 87

Fig. 2.2.12. Pearson's correlation coefficients for maximum sustained wind speeds... 89

Fig. 2.2.13. Pearson's correlation coefficients for central pressure of OMME and... 91

Fig. 2.2.14. MAE for maximum sustained wind speeds of OMME and numerical... 93

Fig. 2.2.15. MAE for central pressure of OMME and numerical models in (a)... 95

Fig. 2.2.16. Errors of mean track forecasts for probability intervals (Low,... 101

Fig. 2.2.17. GEPS ensemble member forecast tracks for (a) Cluster 1 (C1), (b)... 102

Fig. 2.2.18. GEFS ensemble member forecast tracks for (a) Cluster 1 (C1), (b)... 103

Fig. 2.2.19. IFS_EPS ensemble member forecast tracks for (a) Cluster 1 (C1), (b)... 104

Fig. 2.2.20. IFS_EPS ensemble member forecast tracks for (a) Cluster 1 (C1), (b)... 105

Fig. 2.2.21. IFS_EPS ensemble member forecast tracks for (a) Cluster 1 (C1), (b)... 106

Fig. 2.3.1. The realtime operation system of TRUM2 112

Fig. 2.3.2. Domains of TRUM 113

Fig. 2.3.3. Development of TRUM 114

Fig. 2.3.4. The improvement for dynamical initialization by changing initial time... 116

Fig. 2.3.5. Typhoon initialization of GDAPS using vortex from TRUM 118

Fig. 2.4.1. Domain of XLDAPS 122

Fig. 2.4.2. Structure of LDAPS system 125

Fig. 2.4.3. (a) Grid information from nesting suite and (b) rotated... 128

Fig. 2.4.4. Namelist containing grid information 129

Fig. 2.4.5. Gcylc of running state of suite for making ancillary files 130

Fig. 2.4.6. Namelist of createbc 131

Fig. 2.4.7. Land points in the error message of reconfiguration 133

Fig. 2.4.8. Track prediction of each experiment for Typhoon CHABA (1618) 137

Fig. 2.4.9. Prediction of maximum wind speed of each experiment for... 140

Fig. 2.4.10. Prediction of central pressure of each experiment for Typhoon... 142

Fig. 3.1.1. Schematic for the statistical model 153

Fig. 3.1.2. Schematic for the track-pattern- based prediction model 156

Fig. 3.1.3. Diagram shows the atmospheric-oceanic interactions diagram in... 159

Fig. 3.1.4. Time series of the total number of Typhoon in the Western... 161

Fig. 3.1.5. Tracks of western North Pacific typhoons in summer season (JJA)... 161

Fig. 3.1.6. Time series of the total number of Typhoon in the Western... 163

Fig. 3.1.7. Tracks of western North Pacific typhoons in autumn season 2015 163

Fig. 3.1.8. Composite maps during June-July 2016: (a)Velocity potential... 167

Fig. 3.1.9. Composites of typhoon genesis density(left), typhoon track... 168

Fig. 3.1.10. Composite maps during summer season (JJA) 2016: (a)... 169

Fig. 3.1.11. Composites of typhoon genesis density (left), typhoon track density... 170

Fig. 3.1.12. Composites of typhoon genesis density(left), typhoon track... 171

Fig. 3.1.13. Composites of typhoon genesis density(left), typhoon track... 173

Fig. 3.1.14. 3-Month mean number of typhoon (red line: climate, black line:... 174

Fig. 3.1.15. The total number of TCs in the Western North Pacific from... 175

Fig. 3.2.1. Distribution of hazard frequency and mortality risk from TCs 176

Fig. 3.2.2. Perspective views of El Niño and La Niña conditions... 178

Fig. 3.2.3. Time series of observed SST and TC power dissipation 179

Fig. 3.2.4. Hypothetical distribution of lifetime-maximum wind 181

Fig. 3.2.5. Schematic of tropical cyclone climate framework 182

Fig. 3.2.6. Time series of negative SOI and global mean SST 184

Fig. 3.2.7. Time series of ACT in the observation and prediction, and its portion... 186

Fig. 3.2.8. Time series of EINT in the observation and prediction, and its portion... 187

Fig. 3.2.9. Time series of TC intensity and the portion of ACT in TC intensity 189

Fig. 3.2.10. Time series of TC intensity in the observation and prediction, and... 190

Fig. 3.2.11. Time series of TC intensity in the observation and prediction, and... 191

Fig. 3.2.12. Profile of standardized moist static energy (MSE) and geopotential... 192

Fig. 3.3.1. Time Series of Western North pacific mean SST and Tropical SST 201

Fig. 3.3.2. Time series of Global mean sea Surface Temperature anomaly... 202

Fig. 3.3.3. Time Series of negative Southern Oscillation Index anomalies 204

Fig. 3.3.4. Niño Index Regions 205

Fig. 3.3.5. Time Series of SST departures from average in the Niño regions... 206

Fig. 3.3.6. The environmental winds surrounding a tropical cyclone causing it... 207

Fig. 3.3.7. Map of the 500 hPa geopotential height (upper), 850 hPa... 209

Fig. 3.3.8. The Hovmöller diagram of 500 hPa geopotential height 210

Fig. 3.3.9. The Hovmöller diagram of 850 hPa geopotential height 211

Fig. 3.2.10. 200 hPa Velocity Potential (shading) and Divergent Wind Vector 212

Fig. 3.3.11. Profile of standardized moist static energy (MSE) and... 214

Fig. 3.3.12. Time series of standardized PDI, ACE and ACT in the different... 216

Fig. 3.3.13. Hovmöller diagram of tropical waves 218

Fig. 3.3.14. Horizontal distribution map of tropical waves in the observation (left)... 219

Fig. 4.1.1. Satellite analysis of JMA NTP Website 223

Fig. 4.1.2. Satellite Image of JTWC 224

Fig. 4.1.3. Web based worksheet 224

Fig. 4.1.4. TCgen of NHC 225

Fig. 4.1.5. Verification of the TFOG in a) 2012, b) 2013, c) 2014, d) 2015 230

Fig. 4.1.6. Verification of the TCAF in a) 2012, b) 2013, c) 2014, d) 2015 232

Fig. 4.1.7. a) Weather map and, b) surface mslp of the TCAF, 06 UTC,... 234

Fig. 4.1.8. a) Weather map and b) surface mslp of the TCAF, 00 UTC,... 234

Fig. 4.2.1. Relaxation coefficient according to maximum wind... 239

Fig. 4.2.2. Calculated wind field from infrared images(shaded) and wind speed... 240

Fig. 4.2.3. Atmospheric motion vector of typhoon CHABA (1616) on... 242

Fig. 4.2.4. Example of atmospheric motion vector calculation using... 243

Fig. 4.2.5. Multi-Platform Tropical cyclone surface wind analysis data... 244

Fig. 4.2.6. Satellites wind field for calculated Multi-Platform Tropical cyclone... 246

Fig. 4.2.7. Correlation of parameters A and B 248

Fig. 4.2.8. Flow chart of typhoon size analysis 251

Fig. 4.2.9. Long radius (red solid line) and short radius (red dotted line)... 253

Fig. 4.2.10. Equivalent potential temperature at 850 hPa (shaded), wind... 254

Fig. 4.2.11. Wind velocity (black solid line) and equivalent potential... 255

Fig. 4.2.12. Equivalent potential temperature at 850 hPa and wind speed data at... 256

Fig. 4.2.13. Long radius(red solid line) and short radius (red dotted line)... 257

Fig. 4.2.14. Wind velocity (black solid line) and equivalent solidity (red... 258

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태풍 단·장기 예측기술 개발 = Development of the short- and long-term forecast technology for typhoon. 4 이용현황 표 - 등록번호, 청구기호, 권별정보, 자료실, 이용여부로 구성 되어있습니다.
등록번호	청구기호	권별정보	자료실	이용여부
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0002302175	551.6452 -17-4	v.4	서울관 서고(열람신청 후 1층 대출대)	이용가능

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