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List of Tables=xi
List of Figures=xiii
Acknowledgments=xv
Foreword/Steve Nickell=xvi
1. Introduction=1
1.1. Modelling the links between primary commodity prices and the OECD economy=4
1.1.1. The characteristics of the model and the bloc approach=5
1.2. Primary commodity prices: a historical perspective=6
1.3. The oil market=9
1.3.1. The first oil shock=10
1.3.2. The second oil shock=12
1.3.3. The oil market in the 1980s and the third oil price shock=12
1.4. The relationship between oil and non-oil commodity prices=14
1.5. The financial markets in the aftermath of the oil shocks=15
1.6. OECD activity and primary commodity prices: a vector autoregression analysis=20
1.6.1. Multivariate Granger-causality tests=22
1.6.2. Cointegration analysis=29
1.7. Layout of the book=35
Appendix to Chapter 1: import unit value and primary commodity price index=36
2. The Outline of the Theory=38
2.1. The OECD product market=39
2.2. The functioning of the OECD labour market=40
2.3. Industrial conflicts=42
2.4. The working of the OECD supply side=44
2.5. OECD and LDC aggregate demand=46
2.6. Current account imbalances, the world capital market and the real interest rate=47
2.7. The evolution of the LDC external debt=51
2.8. The primary commodity market=52
2.9. The working of the model=55
2.9.1. The long-run solution=57
2.9.2. A comparison between the long- and the short-run=60
2.9.3. The sources of hysteresis: nominal inertia=63
2.9.4. The sources of hysteresis: short-run factors=65
3. Details of the Model=67
3.1. The OECD production function and price equation=67
3.2. The OECD labour market=71
3.2.1. The competitive model=71
3.2.2. The efficiency wage model=72
3.2.3. The insider-outsider model=73
3.3. A model of strikes=76
3.4. OECD and LDC aggregate demand=78
3.5. The financial market=79
3.6. The primary commodity market=81
4. Estimations and Simulations=87
4.1. The estimated OECD supply side=87
4.2. GECD and LDC estimated aggregate demand=91
4.3. The estimated financial market=92
4.4. The estimated primary commodity market=94
4.5. How we use the estimated model=95
4.6. The long-run equilibrium=95
4.7. The breakdown of the equilibrium paths=105
4.7.1. The economic situation in the five sub-periods=107
4.7.2. Accounting for the change of equilibrium rate of unemployment=109
4.7.3. Accounting for the change of equilibrium non-oil commodity price index=110
4.7.4. Accounting for the change of equilibrium real wage=110
4.7.5. Accounting for the change of equilibrium real interest rate=112
4.7.6. Accounting for the change of equilibrium LDC real external debt=113
4.7.7. Accounting for the change of equilibrium LDC GDP=114
4.8. The short-run: nominal inertia and the determinants of wage and price forecasting errors=115
4.9. Hysteresis of the OECD unemployment rate=117
4.10. Oil shock simulations=122
4.10.1. The role of adjustment processes and short-run factors=123
4.10.2. The role of single external markets on the OECD economy=129
4.10.3. The propagation of the oil shock to the whole system=134
4.10.4. A summary of the oil shock effects=140
Appendix to Chapter 4: the estimated model 1958-1988 3SLS=143
5. Conclusions=150
5.1. The descriptive analysis=150
5.2. The vector autoregression analysis=152
5.3. The basic features of the model=152
5.4. External markets and hysteresis of the OECD unemployment rate=153
5.5. What have we learned about the links between primary commodity prices and the OECD economic performance?=154
5.5.1. Through which channels do commodity prices feed into the North?=155
5.5.2. Through which channels does the North economy affect external markets?=155
5.5.3. What is the role of the financial market?=156
5.6. How does the system react to exogenous primary commodity price shocks?=156
5.7. The impact of the real price of oil on the low-frequency movements of the endogenous variables=157
5.8. Epilogue=159
Data Appendix: Definitions and Sources=160
Notes=164
References=173
Index=179
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