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Acknowledgments=ix

1. Introduction=1

1.1. Stories about the Rise of Rational Expectations=2

1.1.1. Story One: Expiration of the Phillips Curve=2

1.1.2. Story Two: Policy Irrelevance=2

1.1.3. Story Three: Using Available Techniques=4

1.1.4. Story Four: Restoring Symmetry=4

1.1.5. Story Five: Optimizing over Information=5

1.1.6. Story Six: Endogenizing Expectations=6

1.1.7. Story Seven: Making Public Predictions=7

1.1.8. Story Eight: Countering Bounded Rationality=8

1.1.9. Story Nine: Restricting Distributed Lags=9

1.1.10. Story Ten: Incorporating Vector Autoregressions=10

1.1.11. Evaluation of Stories=11

1.2. Focus on Sargent's Story=12

1.3. Outline=20

2. Accommodating Randomness=23

2.1. Probabilism, Determinism, and Randomness=23

2.2. Probabilism, Determinism, Randomness, and Economics=26

2.3. Probabilism, Determinism, Randomness, and Sargent=35

2.4. Conclusion=46

3. Accommodating Prediction=48

3.1. The Problem of Prediction=48

3.2. Sargent's Version of VAR without Theory=53

3.3. Resistances to VAR without Theory=66

3.4. VAR with General Equilibrium Theory=69

3.5. Resistances to VAR with General Equilibrium Theory=76

3.6. Convenience in Engineering=82

3.7. Conclusion=90

Appendix 3A. Impulse Response Analysis and Innovation Accounting=92

Appendix 3B. Observational Equivalence=94

Appendix 3C. Cross-Equation Restrictions=94

Appendix 3D. Classical Solution Procedures=95

Appendix 3E. Recursive Solution Procedures=96

Appendix 3F. Covariance Stationary, Linearly Indeterministic Processes=97

4. Accommodating Symmetry=99

4.1. Symmetry in Some Social Sciences=99

4.2. Sargent's Symmetry Saga=102

4.2.1. Subplot of Symmetry in General Equilibrium Theory=104

4.2.2. Picking up the Plot of Sargent's Saga Again=106

4.3. Symmetry Considerations=115

4.4. Symmetry in Science Studies=117

4.5. Conclusion=122

Appendix 4A. Error Term Interpretation=123

5. Accommodating Learning=124

5.1. Complexity and the Santa Fe Institute=125

5.2. Learning with Rational Expectations=129

5.3. Learning with Adaptive Expectations=131

5.4. Learning with Artificial Intelligence=137

5.5. Sargent versus Simon=147

5.6. Artificial Intelligence=150

5.7. Sargent as a Science Studies Scholar=156

5.8. Conclusion=158

Appendix 5A. Adaptive Expectations=161

6. An Interview with Thomas Sargent=163

7. Conclusion=179

7.1. Summary=179

7.2. Framework=182

7.3. Final Comments=184

Notes=186

References=212

Index=235

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The evolving rationality of rational expectations : an assessment of Thomas Sargent's achievements 이용현황 표 - 등록번호, 청구기호, 권별정보, 자료실, 이용여부로 구성 되어있습니다.
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알라딘제공
Inspired by recent developments in science studies, this book offers an innovative type of analysis of the recent history of rational expectations economics. In the course of exploring the multiple dimensions of rational expectations analysis, Professor Sent focuses on the work of Thomas Sargent, an instrumental pioneer in the development of this school of thought. The investigation attempts to avoid a Whiggish history that sees Sargent's development as inevitably progressing to better and better economic analysis. Instead, it provides an illustration of what happened to the approach through a contextualization of Sargent's work vis-a-vis that of other scholars and ideas. The treatment aims to illuminate some of the shifting negotiations and alliances that characterize the rise and shift of direction in rational expectations economics. The Evolving Rationality of Rational Expectations won the 1998 Gunnar Myrdal Prize of the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy for the best monograph on a theme broadly in accord with the EAEPE Theoretical Perspectives.

This book analyses the historical evolution of rational expectations by focusing on the changing ideas of Thomas Sargent.