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Acknowledgments=ix
1. Introduction=1
1.1. Stories about the Rise of Rational Expectations=2
1.1.1. Story One: Expiration of the Phillips Curve=2
1.1.2. Story Two: Policy Irrelevance=2
1.1.3. Story Three: Using Available Techniques=4
1.1.4. Story Four: Restoring Symmetry=4
1.1.5. Story Five: Optimizing over Information=5
1.1.6. Story Six: Endogenizing Expectations=6
1.1.7. Story Seven: Making Public Predictions=7
1.1.8. Story Eight: Countering Bounded Rationality=8
1.1.9. Story Nine: Restricting Distributed Lags=9
1.1.10. Story Ten: Incorporating Vector Autoregressions=10
1.1.11. Evaluation of Stories=11
1.2. Focus on Sargent's Story=12
1.3. Outline=20
2. Accommodating Randomness=23
2.1. Probabilism, Determinism, and Randomness=23
2.2. Probabilism, Determinism, Randomness, and Economics=26
2.3. Probabilism, Determinism, Randomness, and Sargent=35
2.4. Conclusion=46
3. Accommodating Prediction=48
3.1. The Problem of Prediction=48
3.2. Sargent's Version of VAR without Theory=53
3.3. Resistances to VAR without Theory=66
3.4. VAR with General Equilibrium Theory=69
3.5. Resistances to VAR with General Equilibrium Theory=76
3.6. Convenience in Engineering=82
3.7. Conclusion=90
Appendix 3A. Impulse Response Analysis and Innovation Accounting=92
Appendix 3B. Observational Equivalence=94
Appendix 3C. Cross-Equation Restrictions=94
Appendix 3D. Classical Solution Procedures=95
Appendix 3E. Recursive Solution Procedures=96
Appendix 3F. Covariance Stationary, Linearly Indeterministic Processes=97
4. Accommodating Symmetry=99
4.1. Symmetry in Some Social Sciences=99
4.2. Sargent's Symmetry Saga=102
4.2.1. Subplot of Symmetry in General Equilibrium Theory=104
4.2.2. Picking up the Plot of Sargent's Saga Again=106
4.3. Symmetry Considerations=115
4.4. Symmetry in Science Studies=117
4.5. Conclusion=122
Appendix 4A. Error Term Interpretation=123
5. Accommodating Learning=124
5.1. Complexity and the Santa Fe Institute=125
5.2. Learning with Rational Expectations=129
5.3. Learning with Adaptive Expectations=131
5.4. Learning with Artificial Intelligence=137
5.5. Sargent versus Simon=147
5.6. Artificial Intelligence=150
5.7. Sargent as a Science Studies Scholar=156
5.8. Conclusion=158
Appendix 5A. Adaptive Expectations=161
6. An Interview with Thomas Sargent=163
7. Conclusion=179
7.1. Summary=179
7.2. Framework=182
7.3. Final Comments=184
Notes=186
References=212
Index=235
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