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Executive Summary 1

1 introduction 15

The Scope of the Study, 15

Context, 17

Historical Perspective, 20

Limiting Existing Nuclear Arsenals, 21

Preventing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons, 27

Limiting Nuclear Tests, 30

Securing Nuclear Weapons and NEM, 33

Approaches to Implementing Transparency and Monitoring Measures, 37

The Study, 39

2 Nuclear Weapons 45

Declarations of Nuclear Weapons Stocks, 47

Proposals for U.S.-Russian Declarations, 48

Levels of Detail in Stockpile Declarations, 52

Secure Declarations, 56

Frequency and Confidentiality of Declarations, 59

Confirming Weapon Declarations, 60

Operationally Deployed Weapons on Missiles, 61

Stored Nuclear Weapons, 65

Continuous Monitoring of Weapon Stocks, 69

Confirming Weapon Elimination, 73

Confirming Weapon Remanufacture and Assembly, 77

Transparency Measures for NEM Components, 81

Conclusions, 85

3 Nuclear-Explosive Materials 109

Definition, Characteristics, and Production of NEM, 110

Types of NEM, 111

Key Characteristics of NEM, 114

Pathways to Obtain NEM, 114

Stocks and Flows of NEM in the Military and Civil Sectors, 118

World Military and Civilian NEM Stockpiles, 118

Flows of NEM, 120

NEM Transparency and Monitoring: General Issues, 122

Comparing the Transparency Challenges of NEM and Nuclear Weapons, 123

Transparency and Monitoring for NEM: History, Status, and the Road Ahead, 130

U.S.-Russian Transparency and Monitoring Efforts for Military NEM, 131

International Monitoring of Excess Military NEM, 138

Transparency and Monitoring for Civil NEM, 142

Reducing NEM Stocks, Flows, and Sites, 149

Conversion of Research Reactors from HEU, 150

Minimizing NEM Stocks, Flows, and Sites in Civil Nuclear Energy Generation, 154

Other Actions to Consolidate NEM at Fewer Sites, 163

Cutoff of Production of NEM for Weapons, 166

Final Disposition of NEM, 171

Conclusions, 180

4 Clandestine Stocks and Production of Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear-Explosive Materials 183

Detecting Undeclared Stocks of Weapons and NEM, 185

National Technical Means, 185 Human Sources, 186

Audits of Records, 188

Physical Evidence, 190

South Africa: Verifying the Completeness of Declarations, 192

Uncertainties in Weapon and NEM Stockpiles, 194

Detecting Undeclared Production of Weapons and NEM, 198

National Technical Means, 200

Human Sources, 202

Environmental Sampling and Monitoring, 202

On-site Inspections, 206

Detection of Nuclear Weapon Programs by U.S. Intelligence, 208

Conclusions, 215

5 General Conclusions 217

Appendices

A Physics and Technology of Nuclear-Explosive Material, 221

NEM and Fissile Materials, 221

Reactivity, Critical Mass, and Explosive Yield, 222

Production Technologies for NEM, 226

Denaturing Plutonium, 231

History of Military Production of NEM, 232

NEM in the Civilian Sector, 233

B Acronyms, 245

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알라딘제공

In this study, CISAC tackles the technical dimensions of a longstanding controversy: To what extent could existing and plausibly attainable measures for transparency and monitoring make possible the verification of all nuclear weapons strategic and nonstrategic, deployed and nondeployed plus the nuclear-explosive components and materials that are their essential ingredients? The committee (TM)s assessment of the technical and organizational possibilities suggests a more optimistic conclusion than most of those concerned with these issues might have expected.