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목차
Executive Summary 1
1 introduction 15
The Scope of the Study, 15
Context, 17
Historical Perspective, 20
Limiting Existing Nuclear Arsenals, 21
Preventing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons, 27
Limiting Nuclear Tests, 30
Securing Nuclear Weapons and NEM, 33
Approaches to Implementing Transparency and Monitoring Measures, 37
The Study, 39
2 Nuclear Weapons 45
Declarations of Nuclear Weapons Stocks, 47
Proposals for U.S.-Russian Declarations, 48
Levels of Detail in Stockpile Declarations, 52
Secure Declarations, 56
Frequency and Confidentiality of Declarations, 59
Confirming Weapon Declarations, 60
Operationally Deployed Weapons on Missiles, 61
Stored Nuclear Weapons, 65
Continuous Monitoring of Weapon Stocks, 69
Confirming Weapon Elimination, 73
Confirming Weapon Remanufacture and Assembly, 77
Transparency Measures for NEM Components, 81
Conclusions, 85
3 Nuclear-Explosive Materials 109
Definition, Characteristics, and Production of NEM, 110
Types of NEM, 111
Key Characteristics of NEM, 114
Pathways to Obtain NEM, 114
Stocks and Flows of NEM in the Military and Civil Sectors, 118
World Military and Civilian NEM Stockpiles, 118
Flows of NEM, 120
NEM Transparency and Monitoring: General Issues, 122
Comparing the Transparency Challenges of NEM and Nuclear Weapons, 123
Transparency and Monitoring for NEM: History, Status, and the Road Ahead, 130
U.S.-Russian Transparency and Monitoring Efforts for Military NEM, 131
International Monitoring of Excess Military NEM, 138
Transparency and Monitoring for Civil NEM, 142
Reducing NEM Stocks, Flows, and Sites, 149
Conversion of Research Reactors from HEU, 150
Minimizing NEM Stocks, Flows, and Sites in Civil Nuclear Energy Generation, 154
Other Actions to Consolidate NEM at Fewer Sites, 163
Cutoff of Production of NEM for Weapons, 166
Final Disposition of NEM, 171
Conclusions, 180
4 Clandestine Stocks and Production of Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear-Explosive Materials 183
Detecting Undeclared Stocks of Weapons and NEM, 185
National Technical Means, 185 Human Sources, 186
Audits of Records, 188
Physical Evidence, 190
South Africa: Verifying the Completeness of Declarations, 192
Uncertainties in Weapon and NEM Stockpiles, 194
Detecting Undeclared Production of Weapons and NEM, 198
National Technical Means, 200
Human Sources, 202
Environmental Sampling and Monitoring, 202
On-site Inspections, 206
Detection of Nuclear Weapon Programs by U.S. Intelligence, 208
Conclusions, 215
5 General Conclusions 217
Appendices
A Physics and Technology of Nuclear-Explosive Material, 221
NEM and Fissile Materials, 221
Reactivity, Critical Mass, and Explosive Yield, 222
Production Technologies for NEM, 226
Denaturing Plutonium, 231
History of Military Production of NEM, 232
NEM in the Civilian Sector, 233
B Acronyms, 245
등록번호 | 청구기호 | 권별정보 | 자료실 | 이용여부 |
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0001214435 | 327.1747 U58m | 서울관 서고(열람신청 후 1층 대출대) | 이용가능 |
In this study, CISAC tackles the technical dimensions of a longstanding controversy: To what extent could existing and plausibly attainable measures for transparency and monitoring make possible the verification of all nuclear weapons strategic and nonstrategic, deployed and nondeployed plus the nuclear-explosive components and materials that are their essential ingredients? The committee (TM)s assessment of the technical and organizational possibilities suggests a more optimistic conclusion than most of those concerned with these issues might have expected.
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