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Research staff

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FOREWORD

Abstract

Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction 16

1. Background and objective 16

2. Methodology framework 21

2.1. Methodology overview 21

2.2. The models 21

2.3. Uncertainty analysis 23

Chapter 2. Climate change in Korea 26

1. Climate change 26

1.1. The observed changes in the climate system 26

1.1.1. Temperature 26

1.1.2. Precipitation 28

1.1.3. Extreme weather events 30

1.2. Projected changes in climate system 33

1.2.1. Temperature 33

1.2.2. Precipitation 34

1.2.3. Extreme events 34

1.2.4. Sea level 36

2. Korean climate condition 36

2.1. Temperature 36

2.2. Change of season 42

2.3. Change of precipitation 44

2.4. Long term trends of main climatic elements 46

2.5. Prospect and prediction of climate change 47

2.5.1. Long term trend prediction of Korea's climate by A2 scenario 47

Chapter 3. Economic damage of climate change in Korea 52

1. Climate change impacts 52

1.1. Agriculture 52

1.2. Water resource 58

1.3. Human health 62

1.4. Energy 67

1.5. Forestry 68

1.6. Sea level rise 71

2. Climate change impacts in Korea 78

2.1. Agriculture 78

2.2. Water resource 82

2.3. Human health 83

2.4. Energy 88

2.5. Forestry 89

2.6. Sea level rise 92

3. Economic damage of climate change in Korea 94

3.1. Climate change impacts by sector 94

3.2. Aggregation of economic damage of climate change 95

3.3. Relative sensitivity to climate change in Korea 102

3.4. Economic damage function of climate change damage in Korea 106

Chapter 4. Model & scenario 108

1. PAGE model 108

1.1. The PAGE2002 model 108

1.2. Parameter values in PAGE2002 110

1.2.1. Climate parameters 110

1.2.2. Impact parameters 113

1.3. Climate results from PAGE2002 compared to the IPCC 116

2. Scenario 122

2.1. Assumption 122

2.2. Environmental policies 126

3. Emission scenarios for PAGE modeling 128

Chapter 5. Economic impacts of climate change in Korea 134

1. Economic impacts depending on scenarios 134

1.1. A2 scenario 134

1.2. B1 scenario 141

1.3. Kyoto scenario 145

1.4. Climate change impacts in Korea 148

2. Climate change impacts depending on adaptation policy 153

3. Uncertainty analysis 155

Chapter 6. Conclusion and policy implication 156

References 160

Appendix 1 : PAGE2002 equations 164

Appendix 2 : Summary of stern review 180

국문요약 (Abstract in Korean) 196

List of KEI publications

List of Table

〈Table 2-1〉 Summary of observed changes in climate system 32

〈Table 2-2〉 Estimates of confidence in observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events 35

〈Table 2-3〉 Analysis of temperature increase and it's effect to global warming and urbanization in Korea 38

〈Table 2-4〉 Climate projection comparison 50

〈Table 2-5〉 Climate projection comparison by A2 scenario 51

〈Table 3-1〉 Agricultural yield impacts of selected climate change studies 56

〈Table 3-2〉 Impact on water, 1℃ increase in global mean temperature, in billion dollars 62

〈Table 3-3〉 Number of additional deaths (1000s) per 1℃ increase in global mean temperature. 65

〈Table 3-4〉 Regional vulnerability to the main potential health impacts of climate change 66

〈Table 3-5〉 Impact on heating, cooling, 1℃ increase in global mean temperature, in billion dollars 67

〈Table 3-6〉 Estimates of impact of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on forestry and natural ecosystems for a 1℃ increase in the global mean temperature, millions of US dollars. 71

〈Table 3-7〉 Impacts of a one metre sea level rise 77

〈Table 3-8〉 Percent change in rice crop yields by CO₂ and temperature change 78

〈Table 3-9〉 Crop production in Korea 79

〈Table 3-10〉 Estimated net economic welfare impacts of climate change projected by three GCMs under 2xCO₂ equilibrium scenarios (millions of 1989 $US; negative numbers in parentheses) 81

〈Table 3-11〉 Precipitation statistics of Seoul 82

〈Table 3-12〉 Maximum rainfall by duration in 1998 flood 83

〈Table 3-13〉 Climate change impact to human health 84

〈Table 3-14〉 Average number of death/day(June to August) during summer (Seoul) by year 85

〈Table 3-15〉 Threshold temperature and the number of additional death in 1994 summer 85

〈Table 3-16〉 Comparison of the additional death rate by severe hot weather with the damage by meteorological disaster 86

〈Table 3-17〉 Economic loss value (million $/yr) 91

〈Table 3-18〉 Sea level rise by HadCM3 around Korea peninsula (in cm) 93

〈Table 3-19〉 Summary of sectoral damage relationships with increasing temperature 94

〈Table 3-20〉 Monetary 2 X CO₂ damage in different world regions 96

〈Table 3-21〉 Regional impacts of climate change 98

〈Table 3-22〉 Relative sensitivity 103

〈Table 4-1〉 Carbon cycle parameters 111

〈Table 4-2〉 Lifetime and forcing parameters 112

〈Table 4-3〉 Sulphate forcing parameters 112

〈Table 4-4〉 Global warming parameters 113

〈Table 4-5〉 Economic parameters 115

〈Table 4-6〉 Parameters for the risk of a possible future large-scale discontinuity 116

〈Table 4-7〉 Assumptions of scenarios 122

〈Table 4-8〉 Scenario characteristics 123

〈Table 4-9〉 Overview of the main scenario assumptions and characteristics 124

〈Table 4-10〉 Regional grouping 128

〈Table 4-11〉 PAGE base data 129

〈Table 5-1〉 NPV of climate change impacts in Korea from in 2040 by emission scenarios (million $) 151

〈Table 5-2〉 NPV of climate change impacts in Korea from in 2100 by emission scenarioss (million $) 152

〈Table 5-3〉 NPV of cumulative climate change impacts in Korea from 2000 to 2100 by emission scenarios (million $) 152

〈Table 5-4〉 Effects of adaptation policy in Korea in 2040 (million$) 154

〈Table 5-5〉 Effects of adaptation policy in Korea in 2100 (million$) 154

〈Table 5-6〉 Relative sensitivity of climate change by sector in Korea 156

〈Table 5-7〉 NPV of climate change impacts in Korea in 2100 by emission scenarios (million $) 157

List of Figure

〈Figure 1-1〉 From emission to impacts : cascading of uncertainty 23

〈Figure 2-1〉 Variations of the Earth's surface temperature over the last 140 years 27

〈Figure 2-2〉 Variations of the Earth's surface temperature over the last millennium 28

〈Figure 2-3〉 Change ratio (%) of the passing of a year of world's annual precipitation 29

〈Figure 2-4〉 The average number of tropical cyclone occurred per year 30

〈Figure 2-5〉 Temperature trend in Korea 36

〈Figure 2-6〉 Temperature increase trend in region which less affected by urbanization 39

〈Figure 2-7〉 Trends of upper(b,d) and lower (a,c) 5% of daily min and max temperature during 80 years 40

〈Figure 2-8〉 Trends of living temperature index during 80 years 41

〈Figure 2-9〉 10-Year average change of HWDI 42

〈Figure 2-10〉 Change of season in Seoul (1920s and 1990s) 43

〈Figure 2-11〉 Spring flower blooming date in Seoul (Forsythia, Peach, Acacia, Pear) 43

〈Figure 2-12〉 Change of Korea's precipitation 45

〈Figure 2-13〉 Change of precipitation during recent 50 years (1954-2003) 45

〈Figure 2-14〉 Precipitation(right) and temperature(left) change distribution in 2040s and 2090s using high resolution data 48

〈Figure 2-15〉 Results of simulation, temperature and precipitation 49

〈Figure 3-1〉 Ranges of percentage changes in crop yields (expressed in vertical extent of the vertical bars only) spanning selected climate change scenarios-with and without agronomic adaptation (IPCC WG2) 53

〈Figure 3-2〉 Percent change in number of people at risk of hunger as a function of temperature 54

〈Figure 3-3〉 Increase in number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change in the 2080s 55

〈Figure 3-4〉 Projected changes in average annual water runoff by 2050, relative to average runoff for 1961-1990, largely follow projected changes in precipitation. 59

〈Figure 3-5〉 Impacts on water resources as a function of temperature 61

〈Figure 3-6〉 Pathways by which climate change affects health 63

〈Figure 3-7〉 Percent change in the extent of malaria transmission as a function of temperatures, by type of transmission 64

〈Figure 3-8〉 Percentage change in timber production for three 50-year time periods 70

〈Figure 3-9〉 Additional people in the hazard zone as well as people to respond as a function of temperature 73

〈Figure 3-10〉 Costs of sea level rise in OECD countries 74

〈Figure 3-11〉 Sector damage relationships with increasing global mean temperature 95

〈Figure 3-12〉 Aggregated impact of climate change for nine world regions. The impact on CEE&fSU is displayed at the left y-axis. 99

〈Figure 3-13〉 Estimated aggregate global damages 100

〈Figure 3-14〉 Vulnerability resilience indicators in 1990 104

〈Figure 3-15〉 Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators in 2095 for the rapid growth scenario (A1v2), the local sustainablility scenario (B2h) and the delayed development scenario (A2A1) 105

〈Figure 3-16〉 Relative Vulnerability of climate change by region 106

〈Figure 4-1〉 Linear (POW=1) and cubic (POW=3) damage functions 114

〈Figure 4-2〉 CO₂ concentration by year 117

〈Figure 4-3〉 CH₄ concentration by year 118

〈Figure 4-4〉 CO₂ forcing by year 119

〈Figure 4-5〉 CH₄ forcing by year 120

〈Figure 4-6〉 Global mean temperature change by year 121

〈Figure 4-7〉 GDP growth rate in A2 sceanrio 130

〈Figure 4-8〉 GDP growth rate in B1 sceanrio 130

〈Figure 4-9〉 CO₂ emissions in A2 sceanrio 131

〈Figure 4-10〉 CO₂ emission in B1 sceanrio 131

〈Figure 4-11〉 CO₂ emissions in Kyoto_all scenarios 132

〈Figure 5-1〉 CO₂ emission by region for A2 scenario 135

〈Figure 5-2〉 Global CO₂ concentration 135

〈Figure 5-3〉 Global temperature change since 1990 of A2 scenario 136

〈Figure 5-4〉 Realized temperature change by region since 1990 for A2 scenario 137

〈Figure 5-5〉 Global climate change impacts for A2 scenario 137

〈Figure 5-6〉 NPV of climate change impacts by region for A2 scenario 138

〈Figure 5-7〉 Probability distribution of NPV of climate change impacts in Korea in 2040 for A2 scenario 139

〈Figure 5-8〉 Probability distribution of NPV of climate change impacts in Korea in 2100 for A2 scenario 139

〈Figure 5-9〉 Climate change impacts in Korea for A2 scenario depending on damage function 140

〈Figure 5-10〉 Probability distribution of NPV of climate change impacts in Korea in 2100 for A2 scenario when NEA damage function has been applied 141

〈Figure 5-11〉 CO₂ emission by region for B1 scenario 142

〈Figure 5-12〉 Regional temperature change for B1 scenario 142

〈Figure 5-13〉 Climate change impacts by region for B1 scenario 143

〈Figure 5-14〉 Probability distribution of NPV of climate change impacts in 2040 for B1 scenario 144

〈Figure 5-15〉 Probability distribution of NPV of climate change impacts in 2100 for B1 scenario 144

〈Figure 5-16〉 CO₂ emission by region for Kyoto scenario 145

〈Figure 5-17〉 Realized temperature change by region since 1990 for Kyoto scenario 146

〈Figure 5-18〉 NPV of climate change impacts by region for Kyoto scenario 146

〈Figure 5-19〉 Probability distribution of NPV of climate change impacts in Korea in 2040 for Kyoto scenario 147

〈Figure 5-20〉 Probability distribution of NPV of climate change impacts in Korea in 2100 for Kyoto scenario 147

〈Figure 5-21〉 Global CO₂ emission by scenario 148

〈Figure 5-22〉 Global temperature change since 1990 by scenarios 149

〈Figure 5-23〉 Global impacts of climate change by scenario 149

〈Figure 5-24〉 Temperature change in Korea by scenario 150

〈Figure 5-25〉 Climate change impacts in Korea 151

〈Figure 5-26〉 Climate change impacts in Korea depending on adaptation policy 153

〈Figure 5-27〉 Probability distribution of the difference of climate change damage for A2 scenario with and without adaptation policy in 2100 154

〈Figure 5-28〉 Sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts calculation 155

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