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Executive summary=17
PART ONE Africa's performance and prospects=19
Chapter 1. Macroeconomic prospects for Africa=21
In brief=22
Africa's growth is expected to pick up=22
Growth becomes more broadly based=24
West and East Africa remain the fastest growing regions=31
Commodity prices have farther eased=34
Inflation has declined but not everywhere=36
Monetary policy has tightened in countries where currencies weakened=36
Fiscal policy stances differ between countries=37
Current account deficits remain high in oil-importing countries=38
African economies face various risks and policy challenges=41
Annex 1.1. Assumptions about the global economy=43
Notes=45
References=45
Chapter 2. External financial flows and tax revenues for Africa=47
In brief=48
While external financial flows have been slow, they are expected to increase in the near future=48
Foreign investment is increasingly important to Africa's development=51
Remittances are the largest single external flow to Africa=58
Official development assistance to Africa remains resilient=61
Tax revenues in Africa continue to increase=64
Notes=70
References=71
Chapter 3. Trade policies and regional integration in Africa=73
In brief=74
Africa bids to keep pace with world trade growth=74
Commodities maintain dominance of Africa's surging trade=75
Africa is the world's fastest growing but least globally integrated continent=78
Crossing borders tests African commitment to integration=78
Infrastructure and services can improve African participation in global value chains=82
Regional groups are beginning to take initiatives on industrialisation and value chains=84
Africa's dynamic products create global value=87
Notes=88
References=88
Chapter 4. Human development in Africa=89
In brief=90
Human development in Africa is on the rise=90
Inclusion, gender equality and environmental sustainability are on Africa's agenda=94
Value chains can improve or damage human development=98
References=103
Chapter 5. Political and economic governance in Africa=105
In brief=106
Democratic governance in Africa is uneven yet steadily progressing=106
Civil tensions are driven by citizens' political and economic aspirations=110
Armed conflicts face stronger regional and international responses=114
Economic governance shows progress since 2000=115
The fight against illicit capital outflows and promising initiatives in the mining sector could go a long way towards inclusive and sustainable growth=117
References=119
PART TWO Global value chains and Africa's industrialisation=121
Chapter 6. Global value chains in Africa : Potential and evidence=123
In brief=124
Global value chains allow for growing opportunities=125
Measurements show increasing participation in global value chains, with regional variations, due largely to the manufacturing sector=133
Export and productivity growth has been easier to achieve than employment growth=144
Notes=151
References=152
Chapter 7. How ready is Africa for global value chains : A sector perspective=155
In brief=156
Africa has attractive endowments but domestic productive capacity and infrastructure are holding it back=156
Governance and openness to linkages determine opportunities for integrating into and upgrading in value chains=159
Agriculture, manufacturing and services value chains offer upgrading opportunities in Africa=162
Upgrading in agricultural value chains requires new product varieties, shortening the distance to consumers and boosting small holder capacity=163
Successful upgrading in manufacturing value chains depends on local capacity, domestic and regional markets, knowledge transfer and openness to imports=168
Service value chains offer easier integration and provide crucial support for global value chain operations in Africa=173
Notes=176
References=177
Chapter 8. What policies for global value chains in Africa?=181
In brief=182
Five key considerations must guide policies for global value chains=182
A four-step framework can help formulate effective and targeted policies=184
Having a good infrastructure and business environment is fundamental for integrating into and upgrading in global value chains=185
African countries should further develop regional integration and increase openness to trade=186
African countries must boost their capacity to respond to global value chains=187
Global value chain participation and upgrading require partnerships with international lead firms=191
To ensure inclusiveness and sustainability, global value chain policies must be based on a strong social and environmental framework=193
Notes=195
References=196
PART THREE Country notes=199
Statistical annex=257
Methodology=259
Annex tables=264
1.1. Africa's economic growth=22
1.2. Africa's current economic situation and prospects for the next six months=23
1.3. Development of African and world exports of goods (USD billion)=24
1.4. International tourist arrivals and receipts in Africa=25
1.5. Tourism competitiveness and tourism receipts of African countries=26
1.6. Growth and investment in African countries=28
1.7. National savings and investment in African countries=28
1.8. Africa's savings and investment=29
1.9. Africa's investment and GDP growth in international comparison=30
1.10. Growth of GDP by countries=33
1.11. Commodity prices=34
1.12. Export prices of agricultural products=35
1.13. Import prices of basic foodstuffs=35
1.14. Consumer price inflation in Africa=36
1.15. Evolution and drivers of the growing appetite for sub-Saharan African bond issuances=37
1.16. Current account in oil-exporting and in oil-importing countries=39
1.17. Correlation coefficients between cyclical fluctuations of government spending and of GDP in Africa after 2000=40
2.1. External financial flows to Africa=49
2.2. Development finance to low-income-countries in Africa=49
2.3. Development finance to lower-middle-income countries in Africa=50
2.4. Development finance to upper-middle-income countries in Africa=50
2.5. Foreign direct investments to Africa : Resource-rich vs non-resource-rich=53
2.6. Foreign direct investments and portfolio investments to Africa=56
2.7. Remittance flows to Africa, 2000-14=59
2.8. Net official development assistance disbursements to Africa=61
2.9. EDFI portfolio and global foreign direct investment in Africa, 2001-12=64
2.10. The tax mix of different country income groupings in Africa, 1996-2012=66
2.11. Global official development assistance commitments to tax and tax-related activities, 2004-12=69
3.1. Manufacturing intensity, by main destinations of Africa's exports, 2005-10=76
3.2. Africa's trade flows with selected partners, 2000-12=77
3.3. Ease of travel within Africa compared to other regions=81
4.1. Average change in income and non-income human development indices, 2005-12=92
4.2. Average levels of human development and trade integration, 2007-12=94
4.3. Unequal access, exclusion and low human development=95
4.4. Gender inequality and tertiary education enrolment, 2012=96
4.5. Human development and environmental sustainability, 2007-11=97
5.1. Scores on participation and human rights across Africa, 2000-12=107
5.2. Free and fair elections, comparing 2000 to 2012=108
5.3. Public protests and civil violence, 2000-13=110
5.4. Top drivers of public protests, 2013=111
5.5. Assessment of government performance in service delivery in 16 countries in Africa, 2002-12=111
5.6. Political hardening index, 2000-13=113
5.7. Armed conflicts in Africa, 1989-2012=114
5.8. The business environment across Africa, 2000-12=117
6.1. Stages in a generic value chain=124
6.2. Outsourcing and offshoring=125
6.3. Services share of value added in manufacturing trade, all countries, 2009=126
6.4. The unbundling of trade : The growth of trade driven by intermediate goods, 1992-2012=127
6.5. Global imports in intermediate goods reflecting the rise of emerging markets as production hubs, 1993-2012=128
6.6. The greatest opportunities arising from global value chains and resulting new trade patterns=130
6.7. The global value chain upgrading wave=131
6.8. The greatest threats associated with global value chains and resulting new trade patterns=132
6.9. Traditional vs. value-added trade statistics―understanding double counting=134
6.10. Illustration of backward and forward integration=136
6.11. The global value chain participation wave, 2011=137
6.12. Integration of world regions into global value chains, 2011=138
6.13. Growth of global value chain integration, 1995-2011=138
6.14. Integration of African regions into global value chains, 2011=139
6.15. Sources of foreign value added in African exports=140
6.16. Destinations of African intermediates for further exportation=141
6.17. Backward integration of African countries into global value chains, 1995 and 2011=141
6.18. Forward integration of African countries into global value chains, 1995 and 2011=142
6.19. Africa's integration into global value chains by sector, 2011=143
6.20. Regional value chain integration by sector, 2011=143
6.21. Linking global value chain participation to growth in domestic value added in exports as a share of GDP, 1995/97 compared to 2009/11=144
6.22. Compound annual productivity change (range of different years per country during the 2000s) and foreign value added in exports in 2011 in Africa=145
6.23. Growth in backward integration into global value chains and domestic value added in exports by sector, 2002/02 compared to 2009/11=146
6.24. Economic and social upgrading in Africa and the world, 1995/97 compared to 2009/11=148
6.25. Estimated integration into global value chains related to women's share of the labour force, 1995-2011=150
7.1. Drivers of global value chain participation and upgrading : Perceptions of strengths and obstacles=157
7.2. Reasons for lead firms to better connect developing country suppliers to their value chains=162
7.3. Global agricultural value chain activities currently performed in African countries=163
7.4. Africa's manufacturing industries by foreign share in exported value added, 1995 and 2011=168
7.5. Global manufacturing value chain activities in Africa, 2014=169
7.6. Africa's share of global exports in high value-added services, 2000-12=173
8.1. Global value chains and national development strategies=184
8.2. A four-step framework to formulate policies for global value chains=184
8.3. Typology of skills development policies for upgrading in global value chains=188
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