https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/Recovery-Strengthens-Remains-Uneven
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Title page
Contents
ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS 11
FURTHER INFORMATION AND DATA 13
PREFACE 14
FOREWORD 15
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 16
CHAPTER 1. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS 18
The Demand and Activity Perspective 18
The External Sector Perspective 29
Downside Risks 30
Policies 36
Special Feature: Commodity Prices and Forecasts 42
References 64
CHAPTER 2. COUNTRY AND REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES 66
The United States and Canada: Firming Momentum 66
Europe 70
Asia: Steady Recovery 74
Latin America and the Caribbean: Subdued Growth 77
Commonwealth of Independent States: Subdued Prospects 80
The Middle East and North Africa: Turning the Corner? 82
Sub-Saharan Africa: Accelerating Growth 85
Spillover Feature: Should Advanced Economies Worry about Growth Shocks in Emerging Market Economies? 89
References 96
CHAPTER 3. PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL REAL INTEREST RATES 97
Stylized Facts: Measuring Real Rates and the Cost of Capital 99
Determinants of Real Rates: A Saving-Investment Framework 102
Which Factors Contributed to the Decline in Real Interest Rates? 104
Should We Expect a Large Reversal in Real Rates? 112
Summary and Policy Conclusions 113
Appendix 3.1. Model-Based Inflation and Dividend Growth Expectations 115
Appendix 3.2. Investment Profitability 115
Appendix 3.3. Fiscal Indicator 116
Appendix 3.4. The Effect of Financial Crises on Investment and Saving 117
Appendix 3.5. Sensitivity of Saving and Investment to Real Rates 117
Appendix 3.6. Saving and Growth with Consumption Habit 118
Appendix 3.7. Sample of Countries Used in Tables and Figures 118
References 127
CHAPTER 4. ON THE RECEIVING END? EXTERNAL CONDITIONS AND EMERGING MARKET GROWTH BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS 129
Effects of External Factors on Emerging Market Growth 132
Global Chain or Global China? Quantifying China's Impact 140
Growth Effects: The Long and the Short of It 142
Shifting Gears: Have Emerging Markets' Growth Dynamics Changed since the Global Financial Crisis? 144
Policy Implications and Conclusions 149
Appendix 4.1. Data Definitions, Sources, and Descriptions 149
Appendix 4.2. Estimation Approach and Robustness Checks 153
References 166
ANNEX: IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD DISCUSSION OF THE OUTLOOK, MARCH 2014 168
STATISTICAL APPENDIX 170
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SELECTED TOPICS 222
Figure 1.1. Global Activity Indicators 20
Figure 1.2. GDP Growth Forecasts 20
Figure 1.3. Monetary Conditions in Advanced Economies 21
Figure 1.4. Fiscal Policies 22
Figure 1.5. Global Inflation 23
Figure 1.6. Capacity, Unemployment, and Output Trend 24
Figure 1.7. Overheating Indicators for the Group of Twenty Economies 26
Figure 1.8. Financial Market Conditions in Advanced Economies 27
Figure 1.9. Financial Conditions and Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies 28
Figure 1.10. Monetary Policies and Credit in Emerging Market Economies 28
Figure 1.11. Exchange Rates and Reserves 29
Figure 1.12. External Sector 30
Figure 1.13. Risks to the Global Outlook 31
Figure 1.14. Recession and Deflation Risks 31
Figure 1.15. Slower Growth in Emerging Market Economies and a Faster Recovery in the United States 35
Figure 2.1. 2014 GDP Growth Forecasts and the Effects of a Plausible Downside Scenario 67
Figure 2.2. United States and Canada: Recovery Firming Up 68
Figure 2.3. Advanced Europe: From Recession to Recovery 72
Figure 2.4. Emerging and Developing Europe: Recovery Strengthening, but with Vulnerabilities 73
Figure 2.5. Asia: Steady Recovery 75
Figure 2.6. Latin America and the Caribbean: Subdued Growth 78
Figure 2.7. Commonwealth of Independent States: Subdued Prospects 81
Figure 2.8. Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Turning a Corner? 83
Figure 2.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Accelerating Growth 87
Figure 3.1. Ten-Year Interest Rate on Government Bonds and Inflation 97
Figure 3.2. Real Interest Rate Comparison 100
Figure 3.3. Real Interest Rates, Real Returns on Equity, and Cost of Capital 101
Figure 3.4. Common Factors in Real Interest Rates 101
Figure 3.5. Real Interest Rate and Shifts in Demand for and Supply of Funds 103
Figure 3.6. Investment-to-GDP Ratios 104
Figure 3.7. Investment Shifts in Advanced Economies 105
Figure 3.8. Saving Shifts in Emerging Markets 106
Figure 3.9. Effect of Fiscal Policy on Real Interest Rates 107
Figure 3.10. Effect of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks on Real Interest Rates 108
Figure 3.11. Real Long-Term Interest Rates and Real Returns on Equity 109
Figure 3.12. Portfolio Shifts and Relative Demand for Bonds versus Equity 110
Figure 3.13. Portfolio Shifts and Relative Riskiness of Bonds versus Equity, 1980-2013 110
Figure 3.14. Effect of Financial Crises on Saving- and Investment-to-GDP Ratios 111
Figure 3.15. Implications of Lower Real Interest Rates for Debt Sustainability 113
Figure 3.16. Investment Shifts in Advanced Economies 116
Figure 3.17. Global Long-Term Real Interest Rates 122
Figure 3.18. Convergence of Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area 122
Figure 4.1. Growth Developments in Advanced and Emerging Market and Developing Economies 130
Figure 4.2. Average Country Rankings, 2000-12 134
Figure 4.3. Impulse Responses of Domestic Real GDP Growth to External Demand Shocks 136
Figure 4.4. Impulse Responses to External Financing Shock 136
Figure 4.5. Impulse Responses to U.S. High-Yield Spread Shock 137
Figure 4.6. Correlations between Growth Responses to External Shocks and Country-Specific Characteristics 138
Figure 4.7. Impulse Responses of Domestic Real GDP Growth to Terms-of-Trade Growth Shock 139
Figure 4.8. Historical Decompositions of Real GDP Growth into Internal and External Factors 140
Figure 4.9. Impulse Responses to Real GDP Growth Shock in China 141
Figure 4.10. Historical Decomposition of Real GDP Growth with China as an Explicit External Factor 143
Figure 4.11. Emerging Markets' Output and Growth Performance after Global Recessions 145
Figure 4.12. Out-of-Sample Growth Forecasts Conditional on External Factors, by Country 147
Figure 4.13. Conditional Forecast and Actual Growth since the Global Financial Crisis, by Country 148
Figure 4.14. Domestic Real GDP Growth across Emerging Markets versus United States and China 152
Figure 4.15. Average Growth for Regional Groups of Emerging Market Economies 153
Figure 4.16. Impact of Prior Choice on Average Impulse Responses 155
Figure 4.17. Average Impulse Responses to Shocks from Alternative U.S. Monetary Policy Variables 156
Figure 4.18. Domestic Real GDP Growth Response to U.S. Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Rate under Alternative Specifications 157
Figure 4.19. Average Impulse Responses to Alternative Measures of U.S. Monetary Policy Shock 158
Figure 4.20. Alternative Monetary Policy Shocks 158
Figure 4.21. Impulse Response of Domestic Real GDP Growth to External Financing Shocks 159
Figure 4.22. Average Impulse Responses of Domestic Real GDP Growth to Shocks under Alternative Vector Autoregression Specifications 159
Figure 4.23. Brazil: Comparison of Responses under the Baseline Model with Responses from Model with Sample Beginning in the First Quarter of 1995 160
Figure 4.24. Comparison of Impulse Responses from Panel Vector Autoregression with Responses from the Baseline Model 160
Boxes
Box 1.1. Credit Supply and Economic Growth 49
Box 1.2. Is China's Spending Pattern Shifting (away from Commodities)? 53
Box 1.3. Anchoring Inflation Expectations When Inflation Is Undershooting 58
Box 1.4. Exchange Rate Regimes and Crisis Susceptibility in Emerging Markets 61
Box 3.1. Saving and Economic Growth 123
Box 4.1. The Impact of External Conditions on Medium-Term Growth in Emerging Market Economies 161
Box Tables
Table 1.3.1. Consensus Consumer Price Index Inflation Expectations 59
Table 3.1.1. Saving and Growth: Granger Causality Tests 124
Table 3.1.2. Determinants of the Evolution in Saving-to-GDP Ratios 126
Table 4.1.1. Growth Regressions for Emerging Markets, 1997-2011 162
Table 4.1.2. Growth Regressions for Emerging Markets: Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa versus Other Emerging Market Partner Growth, 1997-2011 164
Table 4.1.3. Growth Regressions for Emerging Markets 165
Box Figures
Figure 1.1.1. Cumulative Responses of GDP to a 10 Percentage Point Tightening of Lending Standards 50
Figure 1.1.2. Credit Supply Shocks 51
Figure 1.1.3. Contribution of Credit Supply Shocks to GDP 51
Figure 1.2.1. China: Real GDP Growth and Commodity Prices 53
Figure 1.2.2. Growth Rate of Global Commodity Consumption 54
Figure 1.2.3. Actual and Predicted Per Capita Commodity Consumption 55
Figure 1.2.4. Spending Patterns 56
Figure 1.3.1. Inflation Expectations in Euro Area, United States, Japan, and Norway 58
Figure 1.4.1. Distribution of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets, 1980-2011 61
Figure 1.4.2. Predicted Crisis Probability in Emerging Markets, 1980-2011 62
Figure 1.4.3. Probability of Banking or Currency Crisis 63
Figure 3.1.1. Saving Rate and Accelerations (Decelerations) in GDP 125
Figure 3.1.2. Total Saving: Actual versus Conditional Forecasts 125
Figure 4.1.1. Export Partner Growth Elasticity 163
Figure 4.1.2. Export Partner Growth 163
Special Feature Tables
Table 1.SF.1. Root-Mean-Squared Errors across Forecast Horizons h (Relative to the Random Walk Model) 48
Table 2.SF.1. Exports to Emerging Market Economies, 1995 versus 2008 91
Special Feature Figures
Figure 1.SF.1. Commodity Market Developments 43
Figure 1.SF.2. Brent Forecast Errors and Futures 44
Figure 1.SF.3. Vector Autoregression and Combination Forecasts 46
Figure 1.SF.4. Rolling Root-Mean-Squared Errors: Recursive Estimation 47
Figure 2.SF.1. Real Trade Linkages between Advanced Economies and Emerging Market Economies 90
Figure 2.SF.2. Financial Exposure of Advanced Economies to Emerging Market Economies 91
Figure 2.SF.3. Event Studies around Downturn Episodes in Emerging Market Economies 92
Figure 2.SF.4. Peak Effect of a Growth Shock to Emerging Market Economies on Advanced Economies' Output Growth 94
Figure 2.SF.5. Model Simulations of Potential Growth Spillover Effects from Emerging Market Economies on Advanced Economies 95
Statistical Appendix Tables
Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2013 174
Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 175
Table C. European Union 175
Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 176
Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, and Low-Income Developing Countries 177
Table F. Key Data Documentation 179
Table A1. Summary of World Output 194
Table A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand 195
Table A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP 196
Table A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP 198
Table A5. Summary of Inflation 201
Table A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices 202
Table A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices 203
Table A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt 206
Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices 207
Table A10. Summary of Balances on Current Account 209
Table A11. Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account 211
Table A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account 212
Table A13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Net Financial Flows 215
Table A14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Private Financial Flows 216
Table A15. Summary of Sources and Uses of World Savings 217
Table A16. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario 221
Statistical Appendix Boxes
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 189
출판사 책소개
The world economy continues its slow recovery from the global financial crisis, but the main impetus for growth now lies with the advanced economies. The April 2014 WEO examines the causes and implications of recent trends, including increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, lower-than-expected inflation in advanced economies, and the withdrawal of monetary accommodation. It examines the policy priorities for both advanced economies and emerging market developing economies. The report includes a chapter that analyzes the causes of worldwide decreases in real interest rates since the 1980s and another chapter that examines factors behind the fluctuations in emerging market economies' growth, including the role of China.
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