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Title page
Contents
Preface 5
Executive Summary 7
Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 Results 10
CHAPTER 1. Global Risks 2021: Fractured Future 15
CHAPTER 2. Error 404: Barriersto Digital Inclusivity 29
CHAPTER 3. Pandemials: Youth in an Age of Lost Opportunity 39
CHAPTER 4. Middle Power Morass 52
CHAPTER 5. Imperfect Markets: A Disorderly Industrial Shakeout 62
Hindsight: Reflections on Responses to COVID-19 72
Postscript: Foresight on Frontier Risks 84
Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks 2021 87
Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology 90
Acknowledgements 94
FIGURE I. Global Risks Horizon 11
FIGURE II. Global Risks Landscape 12
FIGURE III. Global Risks Network 13
FIGURE IV. Evolving Risks Landscape 14
FIGURE 1.1. IMF World Output Projections 17
FIGURE 1.2. Fiscal Response to COVID-19 and Expected Growth in 2020 21
FIGURE 1.3. Global Emissions and Warming Goals 23
FIGURE 2.1. Internet Users, Select Countries 31
FIGURE 3.1. Risks Landscape 2021: The Global Shapers' Perspective 47
FIGURE 4.1. Significant Cyberattacks 2006-2020 (Total Number) 54
FIGURE 5.1. Gender Gap in Business Closure Rates 64
FIGURE 6.1. Approved International Finance Institute Financing by Month 74
FIGURE 6.2. Export Controls on Medical Supplies and Medicines 75
FIGURE 6.3. Expected GDP Decline versus Cumulative Deaths, as of 30 November 2020 77
Boxes
BOX 1.1. Future Preparedness for Global Risks 25
BOX 3.1. Risks Landscape 2021: The Global Shapers' Perspective 40
BOX 6.1. Pandemics and Crisis Response in the Global Risks Report Series 73
Box 6.2. Responding to COVID-19: Regional Characteristics 79
FIGURE B.1. Global Risk Response 92
FIGURE B.2. Survey Sample Composition 93
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